AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 8:30 PM
#113Away
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
25p
#82Home
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
33p
TEM 30%70% NAVY
Spread
NAVY -7.7
Total
58
Moneyline
TEM+232NAVY-232
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEM advantageevenNAVY advantage →
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TEM +27
TEM run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
NAVY +10
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +31
NAVY run
NAVY +83

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · NAVY
EDGE · TEM
101.4
50.2
NAVY +51
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · TEM
MLB · NAVY
55.8
74.9
NAVY +19
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Adrian Laing
X · NAVY
CB1 · TEM
54.7
72.1
TEM +17
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · TEM
CB1 · NAVY
64.8
53.9
TEM +11
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Phillip Hamilton
TE · TEM
FS · NAVY
65.5
40.2
TEM +25
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Avery Powell
TE · NAVY
FS · TEM
56.9
44.8
NAVY +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Temple
opponent
Navy
away-11.4
Memphis#63
-1.3home
home+4.8
Army#118
+7.4neutral
home+10.8
Charlotte#135
+11.0away
home+4.0
UAB#121
+4.1away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +7.795% interval: -16.3 to 31.680% interval: -9.7 to 25-10+25TEM wins 30%NAVY wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 32–25 TEMNAVY 28–49 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 32–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 35–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 39–39 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 42–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 46–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 49–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 53–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 56–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 28–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 32–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 39–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 42–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 46–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 49–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 53–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 25–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 32–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNAVY 39–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 42–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 46–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 49–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 18–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 25–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 28–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNAVY 35–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 42–14 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 46–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 14–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 21–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 25–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 28–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 32–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 42–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 11–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 18–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNAVY 21–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 25–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 28–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 32–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 35–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 39–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 7–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 11–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 14–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 18–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 21–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 25–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 28–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 32–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 35–0 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTEM +21TEM +7NAVY +7NAVY +21NAVY +35margin →