CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET
Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
Forecast win probability
AF 33.6%66.4% ARMY
Projected margin
ARMY by 6.7
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
AF 12 to ARMY 25
Win probability
ARMY 66.4%

Current team profiles

Air Force
Army

When Air Force has the ball

Passing

ARMY defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#132
ARMY defense
#98
EPA comparison
-0.07
#132
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#6
ARMY defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.29
#6
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#25
ARMY defense
#92
Success rates
49%
#25
42%
#92
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#39
0.17
#113
EPA / play
1.03
#136
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
6%
#1
13%
#111
Havoc

When Army has the ball

Passing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#20
ARMY offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARMY offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#47
ARMY offense
#1
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.36
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARMY offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#29
ARMY offense
#5
Success rates
35%
#29
53%
#5
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#37
0.30
#16
EPA / play
1.29
#101
1.04
#135
Explosiveness
14%
#97
8%
#4
Havoc

Current key players

Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.3
Coverage
83.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
89.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
14
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
64.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
83
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05

    Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.

Army
QBEthan Washington
13 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
80.369/729
WRZach Mundell
159 rush yds · 3 TD · 11 car
85.922/2069
LBKai Woolfolk
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.6
Coverage
62.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
80.479/1796
WRSamari Howard
293 rush yds · 1 TD · 27 car
78.369/2069
RBCarson Smith
100 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.6139/1044
LBRyan Wells
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
65.6
Coverage
61.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9222/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • Bryson Luter · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lutur is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

  • Brady Anderson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Anderson is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Tulane on Saturday.

  • Godspower Nwawuihe · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nwawuihe is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

  • Parker Poloskey · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Poloskey is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

  • Ronan Boyle · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Boyle is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

  • Brady Mott · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Mott is managing with a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

  • Noah Dolbin · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Dolbin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Florida Atlantic on October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

AF
ARMY
vs
Offense
81.8
#53 of 138
QB
80.3
#55 of 138
72.0
#106 of 138
RB
74.4
#79 of 138
71.2
#73 of 138
WR
80.5
#10 of 138
68.6
#74 of 138
TE
67.1
#81 of 138
74.7
#18 of 138
OL
82.0
#1 of 138
Defense
69.6
#112 of 138
DL
69.7
#110 of 138
76.9
#45 of 138
LB
73.4
#76 of 138
69.0
#111 of 138
DB
68.9
#113 of 138
Common opponents