AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8 · 12:30 AM
Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
#98Away
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
32p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
28p
AF 60%40% ARMY
Spread
AF -3.9
Total
59
Moneyline
AF-152ARMY+152
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AF advantageevenARMY advantage →
AF throw
AF +63
AF run
AF +70
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +57
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +46

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · AF
EDGE · ARMY
98.9
58.5
AF +40
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · ARMY
EDGE · AF
85.4
53.4
ARMY +32
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · AF
CB1 · ARMY
59.7
59.7
dead even
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · ARMY
MLB · AF
51.4
62.5
AF +11
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Max Mustell
X · ARMY
CB1 · AF
60.0
53.7
ARMY +6
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Isaiah Birl
RB · AF
MLB · ARMY
68.8
42.8
AF +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +3.995% interval: -27.8 to 2080% interval: -21.3 to 13.5-21+14AF wins 60%ARMY wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–25 ARMYARMY 21–56 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 25–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 28–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 32–46 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 35–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 39–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 42–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 46–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 49–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 18–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 21–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 25–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 28–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 32–39 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 35–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 39–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 42–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 46–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 14–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 18–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 21–42 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 25–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 28–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 32–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 35–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 39–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 42–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 11–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 14–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 18–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 21–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 25–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 28–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 32–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 35–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 39–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 7–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 11–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 14–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 18–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 21–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 25–25 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 28–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 32–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 35–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 4–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 7–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 11–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 14–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 18–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 21–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 25–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 28–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 32–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 0–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARMY 4–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 11–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 14–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 18–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 21–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 25–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 28–7 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalAF +35AF +21AF +7ARMY +7ARMY +21margin →