CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
ECU 81.0%19.0% CLT
Projected margin
ECU by 13.8
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
ECU 32 to CLT 5
Win probability
ECU 81.0%

Current team profiles

East Carolina
Charlotte

When East Carolina has the ball

Passing

ECU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#92
CLT defense
#132
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.45
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

ECU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#116
CLT defense
#119
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.16
#119
Rush EPA

Drive success

ECU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#119
CLT defense
#132
Success rates
38%
#119
49%
#132
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#110
0.24
#128
EPA / play
1.22
#75
1.21
#67
Explosiveness
19%
#128
11%
#133
Havoc

When Charlotte has the ball

Passing

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#7
CLT offense
#128
EPA comparison
-0.10
#7
-0.04
#128
Pass EPA

Rushing

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#41
CLT offense
#129
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
-0.09
#129
Rush EPA

Drive success

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#11
CLT offense
#132
Success rates
34%
#11
34%
#132
Success rate
More metrics
-0.07
#15
-0.11
#134
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.16
#104
Explosiveness
21%
#12
20%
#134
Havoc

Current key players

East Carolina
QBMitch Griffis
425 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
56.8332/729
DBMyles Pollard
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
41
Passer rating allowed
69.8
Missed tackles
1
83.733/2969
RBAshton Gray
152 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
83.646/1044
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
29 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.6
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
80.873/1796
LBLJ Porter
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
63.8
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.1139/1796
DBAyden Duncanson
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
40.2
Coverage
89.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
69.0
Missed tackles
3
77.0123/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Melvin · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Melvin is dealing with a back injury, and it is unknown if he will face UAB on Friday.

Charlotte
QBCole Gonzales
802 yds · 3 TD · 7 INT
59.4308/729
LBGavin Willis
42 tkl · 5.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
67.6
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
40
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
1
76.7147/1796
RBChance Williams
116 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
74.7181/1044
DBDy'Lon Womack
22 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.2
Coverage
67.4
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
123
Passer rating allowed
111.7
Missed tackles
3
73.3260/2969
TELane Wadle
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
66.9
Penalties
1
70.977/1017
DBDevon St. Clair
2 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Coverage
70.2
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
66.0758/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Hoffman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Owls on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ECU
CLT
vs
Offense
56.8
#137 of 138
QB
59.4
#135 of 138
78.5
#44 of 138
RB
73.7
#89 of 138
72.5
#52 of 138
WR
63.8
#135 of 138
62.0
#106 of 138
TE
70.9
#56 of 138
61.1
#127 of 138
OL
63.5
#111 of 138
Defense
77.0
#36 of 138
DL
70.0
#107 of 138
77.7
#39 of 138
LB
65.9
#131 of 138
75.0
#33 of 138
DB
66.8
#127 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

East Carolina
opponent
Charlotte
A-10.7
MEM#70
-51.0H
H+5.1
TEM#108
-16.7A
A+6.3
UAB#137
-10.2A
H-3.0
APP#100
-5.0A