AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
33p
#135Home
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
20p
ECU 81%19% CLT
Spread
ECU -12.8
Total
53
Moneyline
ECU-421CLT+421
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenCLT advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +37
ECU run
ECU +53
CLT throw
ECU pass rush #6
ECU +48
CLT run
ECU +71

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · CLT
CB1 · ECU
56.9
74.1
ECU +17
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · ECU
EDGE · CLT
69.2
57.5
ECU +12
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · CLT
MLB · ECU
51.5
73.7
ECU +22
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · CLT
EDGE · ECU
27.2
93.2
ECU +66
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · ECU
CB1 · CLT
52.8
64.5
CLT +12
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · ECU
MLB · CLT
58.2
46.6
ECU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
East Carolina
opponent
Charlotte
home+9.4
Temple#113
-10.8away
home+8.2
App State#103
-12.0away
away+5.9
UAB#121
-9.3away
away-4.5
Memphis#63
-14.7home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +12.895% interval: -36.7 to 11.180% interval: -30.1 to 4.6-30+5ECU wins 81%CLT wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 35–21 CLTCLT 18–60 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 21–56 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 25–53 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 28–49 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 32–46 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 35–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 39–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 42–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 46–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 14–56 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 18–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 21–49 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 25–46 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 28–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 32–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 35–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 39–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 11–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 14–49 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 18–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 21–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 25–39 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 28–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 32–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 35–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 7–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 11–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 14–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 18–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 21–35 ECU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCLT 25–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 28–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 32–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 4–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 7–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 11–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 14–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 18–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 21–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 25–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 28–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 0–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 4–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 7–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 11–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 14–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLT 18–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 21–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 25–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLT 0–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 4–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 7–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 11–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 14–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 18–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 21–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalECU +42ECU +28ECU +14PKCLT +14margin →