AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
28p
#110Home
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
29p
FAU 45%55% TLSA
Spread
TLSA -1.5
Total
57
Moneyline
FAU+120TLSA-120
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenTLSA advantage →
FAU throw
FAU +19
FAU run
even
TLSA throw
FAU +12
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
FAU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · FAU
EDGE · TLSA
71.7
79.7
TLSA +8
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Blake Burris
LT · TLSA
EDGE · FAU
69.1
81.1
FAU +12
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Elijah Green
X · FAU
CB1 · TLSA
67.8
72.9
TLSA +5
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · TLSA
MLB · FAU
69.0
71.4
dead even
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · FAU
MLB · TLSA
60.5
78.3
TLSA +18
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Jay Crable
X · TLSA
CB1 · FAU
53.4
67.8
FAU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida Atlantic
opponent
Tulsa
home-2.0
Navy#82
-8.0away
home+8.1
Rice#127
+2.1away
home-8.7
UTSA#62
-14.7away
away-9.1
North Texas#80
-5.1home
away+0.5
Army#118
+4.4home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTLSA +1.595% interval: -22.4 to 25.480% interval: -15.9 to 18.9-16+19FAU wins 45%TLSA wins 55%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TLSA 28–28 FAUTLSA 25–53 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 28–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 32–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 39–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTLSA 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 53–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 25–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 28–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 32–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 35–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 49–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 18–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 25–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 28–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 32–32 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 46–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 14–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 18–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 21–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTLSA 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 42–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 11–39 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 14–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 18–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 21–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 25–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTLSA 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 39–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 7–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 11–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 14–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 18–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 35–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 4–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 7–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 11–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 14–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 18–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTLSA 21–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 28–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 32–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalFAU +28FAU +14PKTLSA +14TLSA +28margin →