AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
30p
#127Home
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
22p
TULN 71%29% RICE
Spread
TULN -8.0
Total
52
Moneyline
TULN-245RICE+245
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenRICE advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TULN +19
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +43
RICE throw
TULN +21
RICE run
RICE backs #76
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · RICE
MLB · TULN
65.9
68.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · TULN
EDGE · RICE
70.5
62.7
TULN +8
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · RICE
CB1 · TULN
48.3
81.9
TULN +34
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · TULN
CB1 · RICE
59.8
55.9
TULN +4
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Stone Combs
RB · TULN
MLB · RICE
55.6
55.5
dead even
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
Daveon Hook
TE · TULN
FS · RICE
61.2
36.2
TULN +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulane
opponent
Rice
home+0.8
North Texas#80
-14.7away
home+8.4
Tulsa#110
-2.1home
home-3.9
UTSA#62
-14.3home
away+5.3
Army#118
-0.2home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +8.095% interval: -31.9 to 15.980% interval: -25.4 to 9.4-25+9TULN wins 71%RICE wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 28–21 RICERICE 18–53 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 21–49 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 25–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 28–42 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 46–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 14–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 18–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 21–42 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 25–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRICE 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 42–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 11–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 14–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 18–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 21–35 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRICE 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRICE 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 39–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 7–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 11–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 14–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 18–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRICE 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRICE 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 35–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 7–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 11–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 14–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRICE 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRICE 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 32–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 0–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 7–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 11–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 28–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)RICE 0–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 4–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 7–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 11–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 14–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 18–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 21–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 25–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalTULN +35TULN +21TULN +7RICE +7RICE +21margin →