AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Fri Nov 20 · 12:30 AM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
24p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
31p
RICE 30%70% TEM
Spread
TEM -7.4
Total
55
Moneyline
RICE+229TEM-229
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenTEM advantage →
RICE throw
even
RICE run
RICE backs #76
RICE +14
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TEM +21
TEM run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · RICE
MLB · TEM
65.9
61.6
RICE +4
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · TEM
CB1 · RICE
64.8
55.9
TEM +9
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Adrian Laing
X · RICE
CB1 · TEM
48.3
72.1
TEM +24
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Stone Combs
RB · TEM
MLB · RICE
55.8
55.5
dead even
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Daveon Hook
TE · TEM
FS · RICE
65.5
36.2
TEM +29
off the edge· hunting Smolik
Eric King
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · TEM
EDGE · RICE
37.2
62.7
RICE +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rice
opponent
Temple
away-14.4
East Carolina#77
-9.4away
home-0.2
Army#118
+4.8home

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEM +7.495% interval: -16.5 to 31.380% interval: -9.9 to 24.8-10+25RICE wins 30%TEM wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEM 32–25 RICETEM 28–49 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 32–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 35–42 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 39–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 42–35 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 46–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 49–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 53–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 56–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 25–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 28–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 32–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 35–35 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 39–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 21–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 25–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 28–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 32–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 35–28 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 18–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 21–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 25–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 28–28 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 32–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEM 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 14–35 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 18–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 21–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 25–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 11–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 14–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 18–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 21–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 25–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 7–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 11–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 14–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 18–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 21–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalRICE +21RICE +7TEM +7TEM +21TEM +35margin →