AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 PM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
30p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
23p
ECU 68%32% ARMY
Spread
ECU -6.7
Total
52
Moneyline
ECU-212ARMY+213
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenARMY advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +37
ECU run
ECU +56
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8ECU pass rush #6
ECU +10
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ECU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · ARMY
EDGE · ECU
85.4
93.2
ECU +8
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · ARMY
CB1 · ECU
60.0
74.1
ECU +14
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · ECU
EDGE · ARMY
69.2
58.5
ECU +11
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · ARMY
MLB · ECU
51.4
73.7
ECU +22
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · ECU
CB1 · ARMY
52.8
59.7
ARMY +7
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Tavius Horne Jr.
TE · ARMY
FS · ECU
54.8
56.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
East Carolina
opponent
Army
home+14.4
Rice#127
+0.2away
home+9.4
Temple#113
-4.8away
home+8.8
Florida Atlantic#108
-0.5home
away-4.5
Memphis#63
-13.7away
home+1.7
South Florida#78
-7.5home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +6.795% interval: -30.6 to 17.280% interval: -24.1 to 10.7-24+11ECU wins 68%ARMY wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 28–21 ARMYARMY 18–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 21–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 25–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 28–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 32–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 35–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 39–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 46–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 14–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 18–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 21–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 25–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 28–35 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 32–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 35–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 42–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 14–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 18–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 21–35 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 25–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 28–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 32–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 39–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 7–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 14–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 18–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 21–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARMY 25–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 28–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 35–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 4–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 11–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 14–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 18–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARMY 21–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 25–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 32–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 0–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 4–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 7–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 11–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 14–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 18–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 21–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 28–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARMY 0–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 4–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 7–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 11–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 14–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 18–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 21–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 25–4 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalECU +35ECU +21ECU +7ARMY +7ARMY +21margin →