AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
29p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
30p
UNT 48%52% TULN
Spread
TULN -0.8
Total
59
Moneyline
UNT+108TULN-108
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenTULN advantage →
UNT throw
UNT +13
UNT run
even
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
UNT +6
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · TULN
EDGE · UNT
70.5
70.7
dead even
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · UNT
CB1 · TULN
56.0
81.9
TULN +26
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · TULN
CB1 · UNT
59.8
73.0
UNT +13
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · UNT
MLB · TULN
51.6
68.3
TULN +17
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · TULN
MLB · UNT
55.6
58.9
UNT +3
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · TULN
FS · UNT
61.2
52.4
TULN +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Texas
opponent
Tulane
home+18.1
Charlotte#135
+11.4away
home+14.7
Rice#127
+8.0away
away+5.1
Tulsa#110
+8.4home
away-7.2
UTSA#62
-3.9home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +0.895% interval: -23.1 to 24.780% interval: -16.6 to 18.2-17+18UNT wins 48%TULN wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 28–28 UNTTULN 25–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 28–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 32–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 35–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 39–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 42–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 53–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 21–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 25–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 28–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 32–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 35–35 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 39–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 49–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 18–46 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 21–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 25–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 28–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 32–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 35–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 46–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 14–42 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 18–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 21–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 25–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 28–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTULN 32–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 42–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 11–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 14–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 18–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 21–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 25–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 28–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 39–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 7–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 11–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 14–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 18–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 21–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 25–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 35–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 4–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 7–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 11–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 14–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 18–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 21–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 25–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 28–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 32–4 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNT +28UNT +14PKTULN +14TULN +28margin →