AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
36p
#121Home
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
26p
UTSA 77%23% UAB
Spread
UTSA -10.9
Total
62
Moneyline
UTSA-341UAB+341
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenUAB advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +41
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
UTSA +20
UAB throw
UTSA +4
UAB run
UTSA linebackers #18
UTSA +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · UAB
MLB · UTSA
57.9
81.6
UTSA +24
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · UTSA
MLB · UAB
74.5
64.0
UTSA +11
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · UTSA
CB1 · UAB
72.9
56.5
UTSA +16
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Joel Rogers
X · UAB
CB1 · UTSA
49.4
76.0
UTSA +27
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · UAB
EDGE · UTSA
50.0
62.9
UTSA +13
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · UTSA
EDGE · UAB
48.7
57.7
UAB +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTSA
opponent
UAB
home+7.2
North Texas#80
-11.2away
home+6.6
South Florida#78
-11.7away
home+9.2
Navy#82
-4.1home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +10.995% interval: -34.8 to 1380% interval: -28.3 to 6.5-28+7UTSA wins 77%UAB wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 39–25 UABUAB 21–63 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUAB 25–60 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 28–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 32–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 35–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 39–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 42–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 46–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 49–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 18–60 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 21–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 25–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 28–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 32–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 14–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 18–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 21–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 25–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 28–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 11–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 14–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 18–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 21–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 25–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 7–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 11–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 14–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 18–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 21–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 4–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 7–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 11–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 14–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 18–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUAB 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUAB 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 0–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUAB 4–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 7–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 11–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 14–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUTSA +42UTSA +28UTSA +14PKUAB +14margin →