CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UTSA 79.3%20.7% UAB
Projected margin
UTSA by 12.6
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
UTSA 31 to UAB 6
Win probability
UTSA 79.3%

Current team profiles

UTSA
UAB

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

UAB defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#78
UAB defense
#32
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.03
#32
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#12
UAB defense
#102
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA offense
#38
UAB defense
#110
Success rates
47%
#38
45%
#110
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#34
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.14
#114
1.03
#6
Explosiveness
12%
#27
15%
#84
Havoc

When UAB has the ball

Passing

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#60
UAB offense
#130
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
-0.06
#130
Pass EPA

Rushing

UAB offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#93
UAB offense
#79
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTSA defense
#80
UAB offense
#81
Success rates
41%
#80
43%
#81
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#68
0.02
#116
EPA / play
1.15
#34
1.14
#111
Explosiveness
13%
#119
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

UAB
QBRyder Burton
791 yds · 4 TD · 4 INT
74.3118/729
LBMarlin Dean
21 tkl · 8.0 TFL · 5.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
66.9
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
101
Missed tackles
8
Forced fumbles
2
78.7100/1796
DBGuylijah Theodule
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
78.391/2969
WRTy Mims
14 rec · 223 yds · 1 TD
78.073/2069
TESean Persson
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.5
Run blocking
73.1
Penalties
0
75.446/1017
RBBam McReynolds
260 yds · 4 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1190/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Antonio Ferguson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Pirates on Thursday, October 15th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTSA
UAB
vs
Offense
68.6
#107 of 138
QB
74.3
#85 of 138
84.7
#11 of 138
RB
70.6
#116 of 138
68.5
#100 of 138
WR
71.2
#71 of 138
64.0
#96 of 138
TE
75.4
#37 of 138
65.0
#95 of 138
OL
63.0
#114 of 138
Defense
69.5
#113 of 138
DL
66.7
#131 of 138
73.9
#71 of 138
LB
68.9
#114 of 138
70.1
#97 of 138
DB
70.8
#86 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTSA
opponent
UAB
H+7.0
USF#76
-20.2A
H+5.2
UNT#64
-15.4A
H+7.7
NAVY#93
+4.0H