AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 15 · Sat Dec 12 · 8:00 PM · neutral site
Commander-in-Chief's Trophy; Thompson Cup
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
31p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
24p
NAVY 70%30% ARMY
Spread
NAVY -7.4
Total
55
Moneyline
NAVY-230ARMY+230
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenARMY advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +31
NAVY run
NAVY +84
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +51
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · NAVY
EDGE · ARMY
101.4
58.5
NAVY +43
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · ARMY
EDGE · NAVY
85.4
57.0
ARMY +28
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · ARMY
MLB · NAVY
51.4
74.9
NAVY +24
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · NAVY
CB1 · ARMY
54.7
59.7
ARMY +5
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · ARMY
CB1 · NAVY
60.0
53.9
ARMY +6
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Phillip Hamilton
TE · ARMY
FS · NAVY
54.8
40.2
ARMY +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Navy
opponent
Army
home+7.7
Temple#113
-4.8away
home+8.0
Tulsa#110
-4.4away
home-1.3
Memphis#63
-13.7away
away+2.0
Florida Atlantic#108
-0.5home
away-1.5
Air Force#98
-3.9home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +7.495% interval: -32.7 to 17.980% interval: -25.8 to 11-26+11NAVY wins 70%ARMY wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 32–25 ARMYARMY 21–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 25–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 49–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 18–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 21–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 46–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 14–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 18–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 42–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 14–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARMY 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 39–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 35–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 4–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 32–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 0–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 4–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 7–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 11–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 14–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 18–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 21–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 25–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 28–7 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNAVY +35NAVY +21NAVY +7ARMY +7ARMY +21margin →