AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 6:30 PM
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
23p
#112Home
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
31p
SJSU 31%69% EMU
Spread
EMU -8.1
Total
54
Moneyline
SJSU+221EMU-221
Against the market
EMU +3.6line EMU -4.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenEMU advantage →
SJSU throw
SJSU +8
SJSU run
even
EMU throw
SJSU pass rush #78
EMU +27
EMU run
SJSU +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · EMU
EDGE · SJSU
48.5
73.0
SJSU +24
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · EMU
CB1 · SJSU
61.6
53.8
EMU +8
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · SJSU
CB1 · EMU
52.8
61.5
EMU +9
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · EMU
MLB · SJSU
50.0
58.0
SJSU +8
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Barry Manning
RB · SJSU
MLB · EMU
49.8
57.4
EMU +8
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Runye Norton
TE · EMU
FS · SJSU
61.5
36.7
EMU +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKEMU +8.1MKT95% interval: -23 to 3780% interval: -11 to 28-11+28SJSU wins 31%EMU wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ EMU 32–25 SJSUEMU 28–49 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesEMU 32–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 35–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 39–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 56–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 25–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 28–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 32–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 35–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 53–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 21–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 25–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 28–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 32–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 49–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 18–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 21–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 25–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 28–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesEMU 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 46–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 14–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 18–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 21–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 25–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesEMU 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 42–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 11–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 14–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 18–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 21–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesEMU 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 39–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 7–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 11–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 14–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 18–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 21–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 25–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 28–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesEMU 32–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 35–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSJSU +21SJSU +7EMU +7EMU +21EMU +35margin →