CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
DUQ 15.3%84.7% AF
Projected margin
AF by 16.4
Projected total
60
80% outcome range
DUQ 4 to AF 37
Win probability
AF 84.7%
FinalDUQ 0 · AF 34model had +16.4, off by 17.6

Current team profiles

Duquesne
Air Force

When Duquesne has the ball

Passing

No comparison
DUQ offense
—
AF defense
#20
EPA comparison
—
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
DUQ offense
—
AF defense
#47
EPA comparison
—
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
DUQ offense
#65
AF defense
#29
Success rates
44%
#65
35%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#33
-0.02
#37
EPA / play
0.19
#93
1.29
#101
Explosiveness
—
14%
#97
Havoc

When Air Force has the ball

Passing

No comparison
DUQ defense
—
AF offense
#132
EPA comparison
—
-0.07
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
DUQ defense
—
AF offense
#6
EPA comparison
—
0.29
#6
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
DUQ defense
#117
AF offense
#25
Success rates
49%
#117
49%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#126
0.22
#39
EPA / play
0.25
#125
1.03
#136
Explosiveness
—
6%
#1
Havoc

Current key players

Duquesne
DBBrock Janeda
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Coverage
89.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
116.7
Missed tackles
0
83.619/1765
KWill Hosick
0 punts · 0.0 avg
77.814/416
WRTrey Graham
4 rec · 44 yds · 0 TD
76.954/1229
DBDeven Thomas
6 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.9
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
42.4
Missed tackles
0
75.5130/1765
DLCarter Lance
8 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.6
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
61
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.1118/1549
LBMichael Wright
14 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
72.4
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
74.9107/1054
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.3
Coverage
83.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
89.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
14
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
64.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
83
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05

    Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

DUQ
AF
vs
Offense
58.6
#117 of 125
QB
81.8
#53 of 138
73.7
#49 of 126
RB
72.0
#106 of 138
72.5
#30 of 126
WR
71.2
#73 of 138
61.1
#84 of 124
TE
68.6
#74 of 138
61.5
#102 of 125
OL
74.7
#18 of 138
Defense
71.2
#55 of 126
DL
69.6
#112 of 138
69.3
#85 of 126
LB
76.9
#45 of 138
74.5
#25 of 126
DB
69.0
#111 of 138
Common opponents