AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
Away
Illinois State
—
22p
#134Home
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
30p
ILST 29%71% NIU
Spread
NIU -7.6
Total
52
Moneyline
ILST+244NIU-244
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNIU +7.695% interval: -15.4 to 30.680% interval: -9.1 to 24.3-9+24ILST wins 29%NIU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NIU 28–21 ILSTNIU 25–46 ILST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 28–42 ILST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 32–39 ILST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 35–35 ILST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 39–32 ILST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 42–28 ILST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 46–25 ILST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 49–21 ILST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 53–18 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 21–42 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 25–39 ILST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 28–35 ILST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 32–32 ILST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 35–28 ILST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 39–25 ILST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 42–21 ILST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 46–18 ILST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 49–14 ILST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 18–39 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 21–35 ILST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 25–32 ILST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 28–28 ILST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNIU 32–25 ILST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNIU 35–21 ILST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 39–18 ILST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 42–14 ILST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNIU 46–11 ILST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 14–35 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 18–32 ILST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 21–28 ILST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 25–25 ILST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNIU 28–21 ILST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNIU 32–18 ILST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 35–14 ILST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 39–11 ILST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNIU 42–7 ILST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 11–32 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 14–28 ILST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 18–25 ILST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 21–21 ILST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 25–18 ILST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 28–14 ILST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNIU 32–11 ILST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 35–7 ILST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 39–4 ILST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 7–28 ILST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 11–25 ILST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 14–21 ILST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 18–18 ILST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 21–14 ILST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 25–11 ILST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNIU 28–7 ILST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 32–4 ILST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 35–0 ILST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 4–25 ILST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNIU 7–21 ILST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 11–18 ILST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 14–14 ILST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 18–11 ILST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 21–7 ILST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 25–4 ILST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNIU 28–0 ILST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalILST +21ILST +7NIU +7NIU +21NIU +35margin →