CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 3:00 PM ET
Paniolo Trophy
Forecast win probability
HAW 56.5%43.5% WYO
Projected margin
HAW by 1.6
Projected total
43
80% outcome range
HAW 23 to WYO 21
Win probability
HAW 56.5%
FinalHAW 10 · WYO 27model had -1.6, off by 18.6

Current team profiles

Hawai'i
Wyoming

When Hawai'i has the ball

Passing

WYO defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#114
WYO defense
#89
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.20
#89
Pass EPA

Rushing

WYO defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#116
WYO defense
#107
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

HAW offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW offense
#115
WYO defense
#121
Success rates
39%
#115
46%
#121
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#118
0.14
#101
EPA / play
1.13
#118
1.04
#7
Explosiveness
17%
#112
15%
#93
Havoc

When Wyoming has the ball

Passing

HAW defense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#89
WYO offense
#128
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
-0.04
#128
Pass EPA

Rushing

WYO offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#128
WYO offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.21
#128
0.14
#55
Rush EPA

Drive success

WYO offense
Higher-ranked profile
HAW defense
#125
WYO offense
#69
Success rates
46%
#125
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#125
0.07
#100
EPA / play
1.17
#41
1.02
#137
Explosiveness
13%
#109
16%
#94
Havoc

Current key players

Hawai'i
QBMicah Alejado
1361 yds · 4 TD · 3 INT
60.9261/729
LBJulian Smith
5 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
81.266/1796
LBMatteus Ioane
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
81.5
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
80.082/1796
RBDeVon Rice
276 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.3127/1044
WRTama Uiliata
27 rec · 245 yds · 1 TD
76.5101/2069
DBJeremiah Hughes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
71.8
Missed tackles
2
74.4213/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Robert Haynes IV · WRout · 2026-09-03

    Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Pofele Ashlock · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Carson Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tre' Griffiths · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anthony Hickman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Isaac Jaramilla-Phe · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17t

  • Oakie Salave'a · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salave'a is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

Wyoming
QBLandon Sims
— yds · — TD · — INT
67.9183/729
SJones Thomas
34 tkl · 4 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
83
Passer rating allowed
74.4
Missed tackles
4
80.061/2969
RBMarkell Holman
248 yds · 3 TD · 5.6 YPC
78.0110/1044
SJaden DaCosta
6 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.4
Coverage
85.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
1
76.7139/2969
LBDash Bauman
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
73.0
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
74.5199/1796
STherman Williams
14 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
73.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
63
Passer rating allowed
63.0
Missed tackles
2
72.5307/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Taylor Hasselbeck · QBout · 2026-08-11

    Hasselbeck has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Tyler Nystrom · WRout · 2026-08-11

    Nystrom has been out of lineup due to knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Deion DeBlanc · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    DeBlanc is dealing with a toe injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Huskies on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ke'Lyn Washom · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Washom is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Huskies on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Diore Hubbard · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hubbard is nursing with an knee injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Huskies on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

HAW
WYO
vs
Offense
60.9
#129 of 138
QB
67.9
#111 of 138
75.5
#69 of 138
RB
73.8
#85 of 138
70.1
#78 of 138
WR
58.4
#138 of 138
72.7
#46 of 138
TE
68.9
#71 of 138
58.5
#137 of 138
OL
66.6
#82 of 138
Defense
72.8
#73 of 138
DL
74.6
#57 of 138
78.9
#27 of 138
LB
68.5
#117 of 138
68.5
#115 of 138
DB
74.0
#46 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Hawai'i
opponent
Wyoming
H-7.9
NDSU#61
-28.0A
H-4.0
SJSU#123
+3.0A
A+6.7
NIU#145
+10.0H
H-15.0
UNLV#83
-12.8A
H-11.9
UNM#33
-14.0H
A+4.1
UTEP#170
+2.1A