AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:00 PM
Paniolo Trophy
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
29p
#119Home
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
23p
HAW 64%36% WYO
Spread
HAW -5.2
Total
52
Moneyline
HAW-178WYO+178
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenWYO advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102WYO coverage #68
HAW +19
HAW run
HAW +18
WYO throw
HAW +41
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
HAW +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Ian Bell
X · HAW
CB1 · WYO
57.9
77.1
WYO +19
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · HAW
MLB · WYO
61.2
65.7
WYO +4
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · WYO
CB1 · HAW
41.3
80.9
HAW +40
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · WYO
MLB · HAW
57.2
56.5
dead even
over the middle
Devon Tauaefa
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · HAW
FS · WYO
48.0
57.2
WYO +9
over the middle
Kyle Frendt
vs
Jeremiah Hughes
TE · WYO
FS · HAW
35.2
54.3
HAW +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Hawai'i
opponent
Wyoming
home+7.7
UNLV#70
-15.3away
home+12.7
San José State#123
-0.1away
home+1.5
North Dakota State#81
-11.2away
home+3.6
New Mexico#86
-4.1home
away+10.7
UTEP#133
+3.0away
away+11.8
Northern Illinois#134
+9.0home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +5.295% interval: -29.1 to 18.780% interval: -22.6 to 12.1-23+12HAW wins 64%WYO wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 28–21 WYOWYO 18–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 21–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 25–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 28–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 46–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 14–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 18–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 21–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 25–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 42–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 11–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 14–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 18–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 21–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 39–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 7–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 11–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 14–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 18–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 35–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 4–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 7–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 11–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 14–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 32–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 0–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 4–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 7–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 11–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWYO 28–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WYO 0–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 4–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWYO 7–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 11–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 14–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 18–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 21–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 25–4 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalHAW +35HAW +21HAW +7WYO +7WYO +21margin →