AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 11:30 PM
#98Away
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
33p
#134Home
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
23p
AF 76%24% NIU
Spread
AF -10.4
Total
56
Moneyline
AF-319NIU+319
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AF advantageevenNIU advantage →
AF throw
AF +68
AF run
AF +79
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
NIU +10
NIU run
NIU +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · AF
EDGE · NIU
98.9
40.7
AF +58
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · NIU
MLB · AF
56.7
62.5
AF +6
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · AF
CB1 · NIU
59.7
59.3
dead even
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Max Mustell
X · NIU
CB1 · AF
54.9
53.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · NIU
EDGE · AF
45.0
53.4
AF +8
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Broderick Windham
RB · AF
MLB · NIU
68.8
21.4
AF +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Air Force
opponent
Northern Illinois
home+0.2
North Dakota State#81
-17.8away
home-3.9
UNLV#70
-21.8away
home+11.3
San José State#123
-6.6away
home+14.4
UTEP#133
+1.4home
away+3.9
Wyoming#119
-9.0away
away+4.6
Nevada#120
-3.3home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +10.495% interval: -34.3 to 13.580% interval: -27.8 to 7-28+7AF wins 76%NIU wins 24%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–25 NIUNIU 21–56 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 25–53 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 28–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 32–46 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 35–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 39–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 42–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 46–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 49–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNIU 18–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 21–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 25–46 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 28–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 32–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 35–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 39–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 42–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 46–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 14–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 18–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 21–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 25–39 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 28–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 32–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 35–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 39–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 42–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 11–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 14–42 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 18–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 21–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNIU 25–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNIU 28–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 32–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 35–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 39–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 7–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 11–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 14–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 18–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 21–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 25–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 28–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 32–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 35–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 4–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 7–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 11–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 14–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 18–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 21–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 25–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 28–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 32–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 0–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 4–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 7–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 11–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 14–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 18–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 21–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 25–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 28–7 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalAF +35AF +21AF +7NIU +7NIU +21margin →