CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
#83Away
Air Force
3-1 · AVR 57.0
28
Final
#144Home
Northern Illinois
0-4 · AVR 46.7
7
Forecast win probability
AF 53.1%46.9% NIU
Projected margin
AF by 0.7
Projected total
49
80% outcome range
AF 20 to NIU 18
Win probability
AF 53.1%
FinalAF 28 · NIU 7model had -0.7, off by 20.3

Current team profiles

Air Force
Northern Illinois

When Air Force has the ball

Passing

NIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#132
NIU defense
#89
EPA comparison
-0.07
#132
0.20
#89
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#6
NIU defense
#131
EPA comparison
0.29
#6
0.23
#131
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
AF offense
#25
NIU defense
#131
Success rates
49%
#25
49%
#131
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#39
0.20
#121
EPA / play
1.03
#136
1.20
#54
Explosiveness
6%
#1
10%
#136
Havoc

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Passing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#20
NIU offense
#123
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.00
#123
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#47
NIU offense
#137
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
-0.13
#137
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
AF defense
#29
NIU offense
#125
Success rates
35%
#29
37%
#125
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#37
-0.12
#135
EPA / play
1.29
#101
1.14
#110
Explosiveness
14%
#97
17%
#112
Havoc

Current key players

Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.3
Coverage
83.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
89.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
14
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
64.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
83
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05

    Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.

Northern Illinois
QBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
80.6
Missed tackles
3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
74.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.1
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
30.7
Missed tackles
3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

AF
NIU
vs
Offense
81.8
#53 of 138
QB
69.3
#104 of 138
72.0
#106 of 138
RB
72.5
#103 of 138
71.2
#73 of 138
WR
67.4
#117 of 138
68.6
#74 of 138
TE
65.0
#90 of 138
74.7
#18 of 138
OL
64.8
#97 of 138
Defense
69.6
#112 of 138
DL
64.5
#137 of 138
76.9
#45 of 138
LB
69.3
#109 of 138
69.0
#111 of 138
DB
69.9
#100 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Air Force
opponent
Northern Illinois
H-3.3
UNLV#83
-20.1A
H+7.2
SJSU#123
-9.6A
H-6.0
NDSU#61
-22.6A
A+1.5
WYO#126
-10.0A
H+11.5
UTEP#170
0.0H
A+3.0
NEV#109
-5.2H