AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
26p
#133Home
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
24p
NEV 56%44% UTEP
Spread
NEV -2.2
Total
51
Moneyline
NEV-128UTEP+128
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEV advantageevenUTEP advantage →
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
UTEP +8
NEV run
NEV backs #144
UTEP +26
UTEP throw
NEV +51
UTEP run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Shay Smith
RB · NEV
MLB · UTEP
47.0
80.0
UTEP +33
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · NEV
EDGE · UTEP
47.9
63.5
UTEP +16
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · UTEP
MLB · NEV
51.0
54.5
NEV +3
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Juan Camacho Jr.
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · UTEP
EDGE · NEV
5.2
97.8
NEV +93
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · UTEP
CB1 · NEV
36.6
64.8
NEV +28
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Kode Lowe
X · NEV
CB1 · UTEP
36.8
61.7
UTEP +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nevada
opponent
UTEP
home-4.6
Air Force#98
-14.4away
home-4.8
New Mexico#86
-14.6away
home+4.2
San José State#123
-0.6home
away-11.9
North Dakota State#81
-16.7away
away+3.3
Northern Illinois#134
-1.4away
home-6.0
Hawai'i#90
-10.7home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEV +2.295% interval: -26.2 to 21.780% interval: -19.6 to 15.1-20+15NEV wins 56%UTEP wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTEP 25–25 NEVUTEP 21–49 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 25–46 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–42 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–42 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–39 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 14–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 18–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTEP 21–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTEP 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTEP 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 11–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 14–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 18–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 7–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 11–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTEP 14–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 4–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 7–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 11–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTEP 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 0–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 4–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 7–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 14–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 18–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 21–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 28–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalNEV +28NEV +14PKUTEP +14UTEP +28margin →