CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET
#117Away
Nevada
1-3 · AVR 51.0
30
Final
#174Home
UTEP
1-4 · AVR 40.9
13
Forecast win probability
NEV 66.0%34.0% UTEP
Projected margin
NEV by 6.5
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
NEV 28 to UTEP 14
Win probability
NEV 66.0%
FinalNEV 30 · UTEP 13model had -6.5, off by 10.5

Current team profiles

Nevada
UTEP

When Nevada has the ball

Passing

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#122
UTEP defense
#137
EPA comparison
0.02
#122
0.48
#137
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#35
UTEP defense
#107
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV offense
#87
UTEP defense
#127
Success rates
42%
#87
47%
#127
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#87
0.24
#128
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.22
#71
Explosiveness
14%
#45
13%
#117
Havoc

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#82
UTEP offense
#136
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
-0.18
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#102
UTEP offense
#132
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
-0.10
#132
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEV defense
#60
UTEP offense
#135
Success rates
39%
#60
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#93
-0.18
#138
EPA / play
1.18
#48
1.28
#39
Explosiveness
13%
#122
23%
#137
Havoc

Current key players

Nevada
QBAJ Bianco
116 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
71.3145/729
DBTajean Stallworth
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.9
Coverage
52.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
1
90.77/2969
TETrace Estes
1 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Penalties
0
89.93/1017
WRDon Henry
1 rec · 28 yds · 0 TD
82.338/2069
LBEJ Smith
56 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.3
Coverage
63.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
80.874/1796
RBHerschel Turner
234 yds · 3 TD · 6.0 YPC
77.1131/1044
UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NEV
UTEP
vs
Offense
71.3
#98 of 138
QB
60.2
#131 of 138
76.4
#61 of 138
RB
63.0
#138 of 138
69.2
#91 of 138
WR
68.3
#103 of 138
89.9
#3 of 138
TE
60.0
#121 of 138
65.0
#94 of 138
OL
63.8
#106 of 138
Defense
67.7
#126 of 138
DL
71.2
#94 of 138
74.5
#65 of 138
LB
69.3
#108 of 138
72.7
#60 of 138
DB
74.1
#44 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Nevada
opponent
UTEP
H-13.4
UNM#33
-54.0A
H-3.0
AF#74
-11.5A
H+3.6
SJSU#123
-1.6H
A+5.2
NIU#145
0.0A
A-14.8
NDSU#61
-20.0A
H+1.1
HAW#135
-4.1H