AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 1:00 AM
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
26p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
26p
WYO 50%50% SJSU
Spread
SJSU -0.1
Total
52
Moneyline
WYO+101SJSU-101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WYO advantageevenSJSU advantage →
WYO throw
SJSU pass rush #78
SJSU +19
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
SJSU +11
SJSU throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
WYO +9
SJSU run
SJSU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Ian Bell
X · SJSU
CB1 · WYO
52.8
77.1
WYO +24
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · SJSU
MLB · WYO
49.8
65.7
WYO +16
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · WYO
MLB · SJSU
57.2
58.0
dead even
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · WYO
CB1 · SJSU
41.3
53.8
SJSU +12
off the edge· hunting Sims
Nathan Geiger
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · WYO
EDGE · SJSU
17.6
73.0
SJSU +55
over the middle
Kyle Frendt
vs
Runye Norton
TE · WYO
FS · SJSU
35.2
36.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wyoming
opponent
San José State
home-5.2
Hawai'i#90
-12.7away
home-3.9
Air Force#98
-11.3away
away-15.3
UNLV#70
-12.7home
away-11.2
North Dakota State#81
-8.6home
home+9.0
Northern Illinois#134
+6.6home
home-4.1
New Mexico#86
-6.5home
away+3.0
UTEP#133
+0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSJSU +0.195% interval: -23.8 to 2480% interval: -17.3 to 17.5-17+18WYO wins 50%SJSU wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SJSU 25–25 WYOSJSU 21–49 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 7–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 4–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 7–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 0–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 4–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 7–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 11–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 14–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 18–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 21–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalWYO +28WYO +14PKSJSU +14SJSU +28margin →