AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
27p
#133Home
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
26p
SJSU 52%48% UTEP
Spread
SJSU -0.6
Total
53
Moneyline
SJSU-107UTEP+107
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenUTEP advantage →
SJSU throw
UTEP +8
SJSU run
UTEP +32
UTEP throw
SJSU pass rush #78
SJSU +22
UTEP run
SJSU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Shay Smith
RB · SJSU
MLB · UTEP
49.8
80.0
UTEP +30
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Kode Lowe
X · SJSU
CB1 · UTEP
52.8
61.7
UTEP +9
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · UTEP
MLB · SJSU
51.0
58.0
SJSU +7
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · UTEP
CB1 · SJSU
36.6
53.8
SJSU +17
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Juan Camacho Jr.
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · UTEP
EDGE · SJSU
5.2
73.0
SJSU +68
over the middle
Judah Ezinwa
vs
Runye Norton
TE · UTEP
FS · SJSU
35.7
36.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San José State
opponent
UTEP
home-6.5
New Mexico#86
-14.6away
home-8.6
North Dakota State#81
-16.7away
home+6.6
Northern Illinois#134
-1.4away
home+0.1
Wyoming#119
-3.0home
away-11.3
Air Force#98
-14.4away
away-12.7
Hawai'i#90
-10.7home
away-4.2
Nevada#120
-2.2home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSJSU +0.695% interval: -24.5 to 23.380% interval: -17.9 to 16.8-18+17SJSU wins 52%UTEP wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTEP 28–28 SJSUUTEP 25–53 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–49 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 35–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 39–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–49 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 25–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 35–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 18–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 21–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTEP 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 14–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 18–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTEP 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 14–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 21–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 25–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTEP 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 7–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 14–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 18–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTEP 21–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 4–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 7–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 11–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 14–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 18–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 21–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 28–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSJSU +28SJSU +14PKUTEP +14UTEP +28margin →