AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 AM
#98Away
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
31p
#119Home
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
27p
AF 60%40% WYO
Spread
AF -3.9
Total
58
Moneyline
AF-150WYO+150
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AF advantageevenWYO advantage →
AF throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
AF +45
AF run
AF +67
WYO throw
even
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
WYO +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Jayden Williams
LT · AF
EDGE · WYO
98.9
43.0
AF +56
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Ian Bell
X · AF
CB1 · WYO
59.7
77.1
WYO +17
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · AF
MLB · WYO
68.8
65.7
AF +3
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · WYO
MLB · AF
57.2
62.5
AF +5
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Max Mustell
X · WYO
CB1 · AF
41.3
53.7
AF +12
off the edge· hunting Sims
Nathan Geiger
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · WYO
EDGE · AF
17.6
53.4
AF +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Air Force
opponent
Wyoming
home-3.9
UNLV#70
-15.3away
home+11.3
San José State#123
-0.1away
home+14.4
UTEP#133
+3.0away
home+0.2
North Dakota State#81
-11.2away
home-1.8
UConn#72
-8.2home
away+10.4
Northern Illinois#134
+9.0home
away-2.7
New Mexico#86
-4.1home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +3.995% interval: -27.8 to 2080% interval: -21.3 to 13.5-21+14AF wins 60%WYO wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–25 WYOWYO 21–56 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWYO 25–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 28–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 32–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 35–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 39–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 42–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 46–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWYO 49–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 18–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 21–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 25–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 28–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 32–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 35–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 39–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 42–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 46–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 14–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 18–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 21–42 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 25–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 28–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 32–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 35–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 39–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 42–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 11–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 14–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 18–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 21–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 25–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 28–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 32–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 35–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 39–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 7–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 11–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 14–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 18–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 21–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 25–25 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 28–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 32–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 35–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 4–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 7–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 11–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 14–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 18–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 21–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 25–18 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 28–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 32–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 0–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWYO 4–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 7–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 11–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 14–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 18–18 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 21–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 25–11 AF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 28–7 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalAF +35AF +21AF +7WYO +7WYO +21margin →