AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
31p
#134Home
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
19p
HAW 79%21% NIU
Spread
HAW -11.8
Total
50
Moneyline
HAW-379NIU+379
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenNIU advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +42
HAW run
HAW +30
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
HAW +31
NIU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · NIU
CB1 · HAW
54.9
80.9
HAW +26
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · HAW
CB1 · NIU
57.9
59.3
dead even
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · NIU
MLB · HAW
56.7
56.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina
LT · NIU
EDGE · HAW
45.0
65.7
HAW +21
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Jeremiah Hughes
TE · NIU
FS · HAW
34.5
54.3
HAW +20
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · HAW
EDGE · NIU
44.1
40.7
HAW +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Hawai'i
opponent
Northern Illinois
home+7.7
UNLV#70
-21.8away
home+1.5
North Dakota State#81
-17.8away
home+12.7
San José State#123
-6.6away
away+5.2
Wyoming#119
-9.0away
away+6.0
Nevada#120
-3.3home
away+10.7
UTEP#133
+1.4home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +11.895% interval: -35.7 to 12.180% interval: -29.2 to 5.6-29+6HAW wins 79%NIU wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 32–18 NIUNIU 14–56 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 18–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 21–49 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 25–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 28–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 11–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 14–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 18–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 21–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNIU 25–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNIU 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 7–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 11–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 14–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 18–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 21–35 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNIU 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNIU 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 4–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 7–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 11–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 14–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 18–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNIU 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 0–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 4–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 7–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 11–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 14–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNIU 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NIU 0–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 4–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 7–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 11–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNIU 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NIU 0–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 4–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 7–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 11–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 14–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 18–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 21–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalHAW +42HAW +28HAW +14PKNIU +14margin →