AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
32p
#133Home
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
21p
HAW 77%23% UTEP
Spread
HAW -10.7
Total
53
Moneyline
HAW-328UTEP+328
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenUTEP advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +20
HAW run
UTEP +19
UTEP throw
HAW +44
UTEP run
HAW +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Shay Smith
RB · HAW
MLB · UTEP
61.2
80.0
UTEP +19
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Kode Lowe
X · HAW
CB1 · UTEP
57.9
61.7
UTEP +4
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · UTEP
CB1 · HAW
36.6
80.9
HAW +44
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · HAW
EDGE · UTEP
44.1
63.5
UTEP +19
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · UTEP
MLB · HAW
51.0
56.5
HAW +5
over the middle
Devon Tauaefa
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · HAW
FS · UTEP
48.0
57.7
UTEP +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Hawai'i
opponent
UTEP
home+3.6
New Mexico#86
-14.6away
home+1.5
North Dakota State#81
-16.7away
home+12.7
San José State#123
-0.6home
away+11.8
Northern Illinois#134
-1.4away
away+5.2
Wyoming#119
-3.0home
away+6.0
Nevada#120
-2.2home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +10.795% interval: -34.6 to 13.280% interval: -28.1 to 6.7-28+7HAW wins 77%UTEP wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 35–21 UTEPUTEP 18–60 HAW neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUTEP 21–56 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 25–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 28–49 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 32–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 39–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 42–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 46–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 14–56 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–49 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–46 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 11–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 14–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 18–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 21–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 25–39 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 7–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 11–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 14–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 18–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–35 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 4–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 7–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 11–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 14–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 18–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 0–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 4–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 7–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 14–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UTEP 0–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 4–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 7–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 11–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalHAW +42HAW +28HAW +14PKUTEP +14margin →