CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
#145Away
Northern Illinois
0-5 · AVR 45.9
21p
#123Home
San José State
3-3 · AVR 49.8
31p
Forecast win probability
NIU 27.3%72.7% SJSU
Projected margin
SJSU by 9.6
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
NIU 9 to SJSU 28
Win probability
SJSU 72.7%

Current team profiles

Northern Illinois
San José State

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Passing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#123
SJSU defense
#52
EPA comparison
0.00
#123
0.09
#52
Pass EPA

Rushing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#137
SJSU defense
#98
EPA comparison
-0.13
#137
0.11
#98
Rush EPA

Drive success

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#125
SJSU defense
#107
Success rates
37%
#125
44%
#107
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#135
0.05
#60
EPA / play
1.14
#110
1.05
#9
Explosiveness
17%
#112
15%
#84
Havoc

When San José State has the ball

Passing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#89
SJSU offense
#62
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
SJSU offense
#113
EPA comparison
0.23
#131
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA

Drive success

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
SJSU offense
#102
Success rates
49%
#131
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#121
0.10
#89
EPA / play
1.20
#54
1.14
#113
Explosiveness
10%
#136
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

Northern Illinois
QBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
80.6
Missed tackles
3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
74.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.1
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
30.7
Missed tackles
3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

San José State
QBLuke Weaver
1278 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
65.7207/729
SPierce Walker
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
0
77.999/2969
RBJabari Bates
487 yds · 0 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.8116/1044
SCharles Cox III
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.3263/2969
STuli Tagovailoa-Amosa
23 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
73.1273/2969
WRCooper Hoch
19 rec · 285 yds · 3 TD
72.5181/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Cooper Hoch · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hoch is hampered by a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Miners on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NIU
SJSU
vs
Offense
69.3
#104 of 138
QB
65.7
#117 of 138
72.5
#103 of 138
RB
71.3
#108 of 138
67.4
#117 of 138
WR
68.2
#105 of 138
65.0
#90 of 138
TE
51.2
#138 of 138
64.8
#97 of 138
OL
61.4
#125 of 138
Defense
64.5
#137 of 138
DL
82.7
#6 of 138
69.3
#109 of 138
LB
67.2
#124 of 138
69.9
#100 of 138
DB
73.0
#56 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Northern Illinois
opponent
San José State
H-21.0
AF#74
-7.2A
A-20.1
UNLV#83
-7.9H
A-22.6
NDSU#61
-10.4H
H-6.7
HAW#135
+4.0A
A-10.0
WYO#126
-3.0H
H-5.2
NEV#109
-3.6A
H0.0
UTEP#170
+1.6A