AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
22p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
29p
NIU 33%67% SJSU
Spread
SJSU -6.6
Total
51
Moneyline
NIU+203SJSU-203
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenSJSU advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66SJSU pass rush #78
SJSU +9
NIU run
even
SJSU throw
SJSU +14
SJSU run
SJSU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · NIU
EDGE · SJSU
45.0
73.0
SJSU +28
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · NIU
MLB · SJSU
56.7
58.0
dead even
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · SJSU
CB1 · NIU
52.8
59.3
NIU +6
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · NIU
CB1 · SJSU
54.9
53.8
dead even
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Runye Norton
TE · NIU
FS · SJSU
34.5
36.7
dead even
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Broderick Windham
RB · SJSU
MLB · NIU
49.8
21.4
SJSU +28

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northern Illinois
opponent
San José State
away-17.8
North Dakota State#81
-8.6home
away-21.8
UNLV#70
-12.7home
away-9.0
Wyoming#119
+0.1home
home-10.4
Air Force#98
-11.3away
home-3.3
Nevada#120
-4.2away
home-11.8
Hawai'i#90
-12.7away
home+1.4
UTEP#133
+0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSJSU +6.695% interval: -17.3 to 30.580% interval: -10.8 to 24-11+24NIU wins 33%SJSU wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SJSU 28–21 NIUSJSU 25–46 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 7–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 11–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 14–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 18–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 4–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 7–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 11–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 14–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 18–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 25–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 28–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNIU +21NIU +7SJSU +7SJSU +21SJSU +35margin →