AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
26p
#134Home
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
22p
NEV 59%41% NIU
Spread
NEV -3.3
Total
48
Moneyline
NEV-143NIU+143
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEV advantageevenNIU advantage →
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
NEV +13
NEV run
NEV backs #144
NEV +23
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
NEV +37
NIU run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · NIU
EDGE · NEV
45.0
97.8
NEV +53
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · NIU
CB1 · NEV
54.9
64.8
NEV +10
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · NIU
MLB · NEV
56.7
54.5
dead even
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · NEV
CB1 · NIU
36.8
59.3
NIU +22
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · NEV
EDGE · NIU
47.9
40.7
NEV +7
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Zavien Abercrombie
TE · NIU
FS · NEV
34.5
49.3
NEV +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nevada
opponent
Northern Illinois
home+4.2
San José State#123
-6.6away
away-11.9
North Dakota State#81
-17.8away
home-4.6
Air Force#98
-10.4home
home-6.0
Hawai'i#90
-11.8home
away-16.0
UNLV#70
-21.8away
away+2.2
UTEP#133
+1.4home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEV +3.395% interval: -27.2 to 20.680% interval: -20.7 to 14.1-21+14NEV wins 59%NIU wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NIU 25–25 NEVNIU 21–49 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 25–46 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 28–42 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNIU 18–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 21–42 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 25–39 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 14–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 18–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 21–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNIU 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 11–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 14–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 18–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNIU 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNIU 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 7–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 11–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 14–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNIU 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 4–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 7–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 11–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 0–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 4–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 7–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNIU 11–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 14–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 18–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 21–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 25–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 28–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalNEV +28NEV +14PKNIU +14NIU +28margin →