AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 1:00 AM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
22p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
36p
UTEP 17%83% AF
Spread
AF -14.4
Total
59
Moneyline
UTEP+505AF-505
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTEP advantageevenAF advantage →
UTEP throw
even
UTEP run
AF +11
AF throw
AF +46
AF run
AF +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · AF
EDGE · UTEP
98.9
63.5
AF +35
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Shay Smith
RB · AF
MLB · UTEP
68.8
80.0
UTEP +11
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Kode Lowe
X · AF
CB1 · UTEP
59.7
61.7
dead even
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · UTEP
MLB · AF
51.0
62.5
AF +11
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Max Mustell
X · UTEP
CB1 · AF
36.6
53.7
AF +17
over the middle
Judah Ezinwa
vs
RJ Reedus
TE · UTEP
FS · AF
35.7
35.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTEP
opponent
Air Force
away-16.7
North Dakota State#81
+0.2home
home-0.6
San José State#123
+11.3home
away-14.6
New Mexico#86
-2.7away
away-1.4
Northern Illinois#134
+10.4away
home-3.0
Wyoming#119
+3.9away
home-2.2
Nevada#120
+4.6away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +14.495% interval: -9.5 to 38.380% interval: -3 to 31.8-3+32UTEP wins 17%AF wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 35–21 UTEPAF 32–46 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 35–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 39–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 42–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 46–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 49–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 53–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 56–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 60–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 28–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 32–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 35–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 39–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 53–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 56–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 25–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 28–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 32–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 35–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 49–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 53–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 21–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 25–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 28–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 32–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAF 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 46–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 49–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 18–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 21–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 25–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 28–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAF 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 42–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 46–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 14–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 18–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 21–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 25–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 39–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 42–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 11–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 14–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 18–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 21–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 35–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUTEP +14PKAF +14AF +28AF +42margin →