AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 10:00 PM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
22p
#103Home
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
34p
CLT 20%80% APP
Spread
APP -12.0
Total
56
Moneyline
CLT+389APP-389
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenAPP advantage →
CLT throw
APP +12
CLT run
APP +29
APP throw
APP protection #46
even
APP run
APP +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · APP
EDGE · CLT
81.7
57.5
APP +24
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · CLT
CB1 · APP
56.9
77.4
APP +21
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Colton Phares
RB · CLT
MLB · APP
51.5
76.6
APP +25
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · CLT
EDGE · APP
27.2
84.7
APP +57
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · APP
MLB · CLT
60.6
46.6
APP +14
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · APP
CB1 · CLT
41.4
64.5
CLT +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAPP +12.095% interval: -11.9 to 35.980% interval: -5.4 to 29.4-5+29CLT wins 20%APP wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ APP 35–21 CLTAPP 32–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 35–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 39–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 42–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 60–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 28–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 32–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 35–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 39–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 56–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 25–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 28–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 32–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 35–28 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAPP 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 53–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 21–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 25–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 28–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 32–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 49–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 18–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 21–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 25–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 28–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAPP 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 46–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 14–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 18–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 21–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 25–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 42–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 11–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 14–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 18–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 21–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 25–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 28–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 32–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 35–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCLT +14PKAPP +14APP +28APP +42margin →