AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
25p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
29p
USA 39%61% TULN
Spread
TULN -4.2
Total
54
Moneyline
USA+159TULN-159
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenTULN advantage →
USA throw
TULN +5
USA run
USA +17
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TULN +23
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · USA
CB1 · TULN
49.2
81.9
TULN +33
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · TULN
CB1 · USA
59.8
69.9
USA +10
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · USA
MLB · TULN
60.0
68.3
TULN +8
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · TULN
EDGE · USA
70.5
46.3
TULN +24
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · TULN
MLB · USA
55.6
59.9
USA +4
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · TULN
FS · USA
61.2
42.7
TULN +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +4.295% interval: -19.8 to 28.180% interval: -13.2 to 21.5-13+22USA wins 39%TULN wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 32–25 USATULN 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 56–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTULN 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 53–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 49–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTULN 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 46–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTULN 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 42–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 39–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 35–0 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +21USA +7TULN +7TULN +21TULN +35margin →