AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:45 PM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
24p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
31p
USA 32%68% UK
Spread
UK -7.0
Total
54
Moneyline
USA+214UK-214
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenUK advantage →
USA throw
UK pass rush #49
UK +9
USA run
UK +13
UK throw
UK protection #32
UK +24
UK run
UK backs #105
UK +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · UK
EDGE · USA
85.1
46.3
UK +39
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · USA
MLB · UK
60.0
66.0
UK +6
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · USA
CB1 · UK
49.2
70.2
UK +21
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · UK
CB1 · USA
45.6
69.9
USA +24
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · UK
MLB · USA
52.0
59.9
USA +8
over the middle
Willie Rodriguez
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · UK
FS · USA
51.2
42.7
UK +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUK +7.095% interval: -16.9 to 30.980% interval: -10.4 to 24.4-10+24USA wins 32%UK wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UK 32–25 USAUK 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 56–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 53–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 49–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 46–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 42–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 39–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 35–0 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +21USA +7UK +7UK +21UK +35margin →