AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 6:30 PM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
19p
#112Home
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
34p
SAC 14%86% EMU
Spread
EMU -15.5
Total
53
Moneyline
SAC+598EMU-598
Against the market
EMU +6.5line EMU -9.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenEMU advantage →
SAC throw
EMU +16
SAC run
EMU +14
EMU throw
EMU +36
EMU run
EMU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Barry Manning
RB · SAC
MLB · EMU
46.2
57.4
EMU +11
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · EMU
EDGE · SAC
48.5
52.5
SAC +4
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · SAC
CB1 · EMU
38.4
61.5
EMU +23
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · EMU
CB1 · SAC
61.6
33.6
EMU +28
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · EMU
MLB · SAC
50.0
28.6
EMU +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sacramento State
opponent
Eastern Michigan
home+28.7
Massachusetts#138
+18.3away
home+5.1
Ohio#101
-5.3away
home+14.4
Kent State#128
+9.0home
home+1.1
Toledo#73
-4.3home
away+3.7
Central Michigan#107
+0.8neutral

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKEMU +15.5MKT95% interval: -14 to 4580% interval: -3 to 35-3+35SAC wins 14%EMU wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ EMU 35–21 SACEMU 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesEMU 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesEMU 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 49–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 53–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 56–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 60–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 46–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 49–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 53–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 56–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 42–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 46–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 49–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 53–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesEMU 39–18 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 42–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 46–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 49–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesEMU 35–14 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 39–11 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 42–7 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 46–4 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 32–11 SAC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 35–7 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 39–4 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 42–0 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 28–7 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 32–4 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 35–0 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSAC +14PKEMU +14EMU +28EMU +42margin →