AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 10:00 PM
#89Away
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
28p
#101Home
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
29p
JXST 48%52% OHIO
Spread
OHIO -0.6
Total
57
Moneyline
JXST+107OHIO-107
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JXST advantageevenOHIO advantage →
JXST throw
JXST +39
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +15
OHIO throw
JXST +34
OHIO run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · OHIO
MLB · JXST
63.3
73.0
JXST +10
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
DJ Morton
X · JXST
CB1 · OHIO
71.0
62.9
JXST +8
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · OHIO
CB1 · JXST
48.0
79.4
JXST +31
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · JXST
EDGE · OHIO
65.3
60.3
JXST +5
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · JXST
MLB · OHIO
49.7
56.6
OHIO +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +0.695% interval: -23.3 to 24.580% interval: -16.8 to 18-17+18JXST wins 48%OHIO wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 28–28 JXSTOHIO 25–53 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 28–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 32–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 35–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 39–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 42–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 46–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOHIO 49–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 53–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 25–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 28–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOHIO 32–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOHIO 35–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 39–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOHIO 42–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 46–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 49–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 18–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 21–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 25–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 28–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 32–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOHIO 35–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 46–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 14–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 18–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 21–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 25–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 28–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOHIO 32–25 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 35–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 39–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 42–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 11–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 14–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 18–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 21–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 25–25 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOHIO 28–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 35–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 39–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 7–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 11–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 14–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOHIO 18–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 25–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOHIO 28–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 32–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 35–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 4–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 7–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 11–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 14–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 18–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 21–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 25–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 28–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 32–4 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalJXST +28JXST +14PKOHIO +14OHIO +28margin →