AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
26p
#100Home
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
29p
OHIO 42%58% USA
Spread
USA -3.1
Total
56
Moneyline
OHIO+139USA-139
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenUSA advantage →
OHIO throw
OHIO +10
OHIO run
OHIO +45
USA throw
USA +7
USA run
USA +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · OHIO
MLB · USA
63.3
59.9
OHIO +3
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · OHIO
CB1 · USA
48.0
69.9
USA +22
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · USA
MLB · OHIO
60.0
56.6
USA +3
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
DJ Morton
X · USA
CB1 · OHIO
49.2
62.9
OHIO +14
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · USA
FS · OHIO
43.7
49.9
OHIO +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSA +3.195% interval: -20.8 to 2780% interval: -14.3 to 20.5-14+21OHIO wins 42%USA wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USA 28–28 OHIOUSA 25–53 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSA 28–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 32–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 35–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 39–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 42–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 46–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 49–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 53–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 21–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 25–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 28–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 32–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 49–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 18–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 21–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 25–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 28–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 46–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 14–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 18–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 21–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 25–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 42–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 11–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 14–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 18–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 21–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 39–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 7–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 11–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 14–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 18–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 35–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 4–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSA 7–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 11–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 14–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 32–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalOHIO +28OHIO +14PKUSA +14USA +28margin →