AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#138Away
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
13p
#111Home
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
42p
MASS 2%98% SAC
Spread
SAC -28.7
Total
55
Moneyline
MASS—SAC—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MASS advantageevenSAC advantage →
MASS throw
SAC +7
MASS run
SAC +16
SAC throw
MASS +13
SAC run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · SAC
MLB · MASS
46.2
56.4
MASS +10
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
DD Snyder
X · SAC
CB1 · MASS
38.4
61.2
MASS +23
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · MASS
MLB · SAC
50.1
28.6
MASS +22
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · MASS
CB1 · SAC
36.2
33.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting III
Zachary Franks
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · MASS
EDGE · SAC
-1.8
52.5
SAC +54

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Massachusetts
opponent
Sacramento State
away-30.1
Toledo#73
+1.1home
away-22.3
Bowling Green#114
+3.8away
home-9.1
Ball State#136
+12.1away
home-18.3
Eastern Michigan#112
-15.5away

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 46
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +28.795% interval: 4.8 to 52.680% interval: 11.3 to 46.1+11+46MASS wins 2%SAC wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 42–14 MASSSAC 39–39 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 42–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 46–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 49–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 53–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 56–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 60–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 63–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSAC 67–11 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 35–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 39–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 42–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSAC 46–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSAC 49–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 53–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 56–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 60–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 63–7 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 32–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 35–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 39–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 42–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSAC 46–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSAC 49–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 53–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 56–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 60–4 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 28–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 32–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 35–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 39–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 42–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesSAC 46–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSAC 49–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 53–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 56–0 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 25–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 28–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 32–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 35–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 39–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSAC 42–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 46–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 49–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SAC 21–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 25–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 28–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSAC 32–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 35–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 39–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 42–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SAC 18–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 21–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSAC 25–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSAC 28–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 32–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 35–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKSAC +14SAC +28SAC +42SAC +56margin →