AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
21p
#114Home
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
31p
BALL 23%77% BGSU
Spread
BGSU -10.8
Total
52
Moneyline
BALL+344BGSU-344
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenBGSU advantage →
BALL throw
BGSU +46
BALL run
BGSU +59
BGSU throw
BGSU +8
BGSU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · BALL
CB1 · BGSU
47.0
79.7
BGSU +33
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · BALL
MLB · BGSU
49.3
69.1
BGSU +20
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Jared Badie
RB · BGSU
MLB · BALL
52.8
60.1
BALL +7
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · BALL
EDGE · BGSU
12.8
95.5
BGSU +83
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · BGSU
CB1 · BALL
38.4
55.4
BALL +17
off the edge· hunting Novosad
Brody Bolyn
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · BGSU
EDGE · BALL
28.1
47.5
BALL +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ball State
opponent
Bowling Green
away-5.2
Kent State#128
+8.1home
away+9.1
Massachusetts#138
+22.3home
home-12.1
Sacramento State#111
-3.8home
home-3.8
Buffalo#116
-0.5away
home-13.6
Toledo#73
-10.3away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBGSU +10.895% interval: -13.1 to 34.780% interval: -6.6 to 28.1-7+28BALL wins 23%BGSU wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BGSU 32–18 BALLBGSU 28–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 32–39 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 56–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 25–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 28–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 53–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 21–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 25–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 49–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 18–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 21–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 46–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 14–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 18–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 42–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 11–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 14–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BGSU 7–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 11–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 14–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 18–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 21–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 25–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–0 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBALL +14PKBGSU +14BGSU +28BGSU +42margin →