AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
26p
#111Home
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
31p
OHIO 36%64% SAC
Spread
SAC -5.1
Total
57
Moneyline
OHIO+177SAC-177
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenSAC advantage →
OHIO throw
OHIO +9
OHIO run
OHIO +42
SAC throw
OHIO +27
SAC run
OHIO +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · SAC
MLB · OHIO
46.2
56.6
OHIO +10
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
DJ Morton
X · SAC
CB1 · OHIO
38.4
62.9
OHIO +24
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · OHIO
MLB · SAC
63.3
28.6
OHIO +35
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · OHIO
CB1 · SAC
48.0
33.6
OHIO +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio
opponent
Sacramento State
home+5.3
Eastern Michigan#112
-15.5away
away+6.8
Kent State#128
+14.4home
home-1.6
Toledo#73
+1.1home
home+14.5
Ball State#136
+12.1away
home+6.1
Central Michigan#107
+3.7away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +5.195% interval: -18.8 to 2980% interval: -12.2 to 22.5-12+23OHIO wins 36%SAC wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 32–25 OHIOSAC 28–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 32–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 35–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSAC 39–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 42–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 46–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 49–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 53–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 56–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 25–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 28–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 32–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSAC 49–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSAC 53–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 21–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 25–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSAC 28–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSAC 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSAC 46–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 49–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 18–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 21–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSAC 25–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSAC 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSAC 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 42–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 46–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 14–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 18–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 21–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSAC 39–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 42–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 11–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 14–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 18–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSAC 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 35–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSAC 39–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 7–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 11–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 14–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSAC 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 32–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 35–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalOHIO +21OHIO +7SAC +7SAC +21SAC +35margin →