AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
34p
#136Home
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
22p
SAC 80%20% BALL
Spread
SAC -12.1
Total
56
Moneyline
SAC-388BALL+388
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenBALL advantage →
SAC throw
BALL +10
SAC run
BALL +7
BALL throw
BALL +5
BALL run
SAC +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Jared Badie
RB · SAC
MLB · BALL
46.2
60.1
BALL +14
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · SAC
CB1 · BALL
38.4
55.4
BALL +17
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · BALL
CB1 · SAC
47.0
33.6
BALL +13
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · BALL
MLB · SAC
49.3
28.6
BALL +21
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · BALL
EDGE · SAC
12.8
52.5
SAC +40

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sacramento State
opponent
Ball State
home+28.7
Massachusetts#138
+9.1away
home+5.1
Ohio#101
-14.5away
home+14.4
Kent State#128
-5.2away
home+1.1
Toledo#73
-13.6home
away+3.8
Bowling Green#114
-10.8away
away+3.7
Central Michigan#107
-5.9home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +12.195% interval: -36 to 11.880% interval: -29.5 to 5.3-29+5SAC wins 80%BALL wins 20%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 35–21 BALLBALL 18–60 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 21–56 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 25–53 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 28–49 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 14–56 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 18–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 21–49 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 25–46 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 11–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 14–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 18–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 21–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBALL 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBALL 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 7–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 11–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 14–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 18–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBALL 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBALL 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBALL 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBALL 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 4–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 7–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 11–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 14–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBALL 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBALL 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 0–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 4–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 7–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 11–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBALL 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BALL 0–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 4–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 7–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalSAC +42SAC +28SAC +14PKBALL +14margin →