AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 2:30 AM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
22p
#111Home
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
36p
KENT 16%84% SAC
Spread
SAC -14.4
Total
58
Moneyline
KENT+528SAC-528
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenSAC advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
KENT +19
KENT run
SAC +4
SAC throw
KENT +22
SAC run
KENT +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · SAC
MLB · KENT
46.2
53.9
KENT +8
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · SAC
CB1 · KENT
38.4
59.4
KENT +21
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · KENT
MLB · SAC
53.3
28.6
KENT +25
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · KENT
CB1 · SAC
44.9
33.6
KENT +11
off the edge· hunting DeShields
Dustyn Morell
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · KENT
EDGE · SAC
24.4
52.5
SAC +28

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kent State
opponent
Sacramento State
home-6.8
Ohio#101
+5.1home
away-8.1
Bowling Green#114
+3.8away
home+5.2
Ball State#136
+12.1away
away-9.0
Eastern Michigan#112
-15.5away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +14.495% interval: -9.5 to 38.380% interval: -3 to 31.8-3+32KENT wins 16%SAC wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 35–21 KENTSAC 32–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 35–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSAC 39–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSAC 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 60–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 28–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 32–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 35–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSAC 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSAC 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 56–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 25–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 28–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 32–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSAC 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSAC 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 53–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 21–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 25–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 28–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSAC 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 49–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 18–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 21–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 25–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSAC 46–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 14–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 18–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 21–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSAC 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSAC 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 42–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 11–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 14–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 18–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSAC 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSAC 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalKENT +14PKSAC +14SAC +28SAC +42margin →