AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
20p
#84Home
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
30p
BGSU 26%74% WMU
Spread
WMU -9.4
Total
50
Moneyline
BGSU+292WMU-292
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenWMU advantage →
BGSU throw
WMU +50
BGSU run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +35
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
BGSU +29
WMU run
WMU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · WMU
EDGE · BGSU
72.2
95.5
BGSU +23
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · WMU
MLB · BGSU
62.8
69.1
BGSU +6
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · WMU
CB1 · BGSU
47.0
79.7
BGSU +33
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · BGSU
CB1 · WMU
38.4
78.2
WMU +40
off the edge· hunting Novosad
Brody Bolyn
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · BGSU
EDGE · WMU
28.1
81.6
WMU +53
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · BGSU
MLB · WMU
52.8
56.5
WMU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Bowling Green
opponent
Western Michigan
away-6.1
Miami (OH)#91
+5.9home
away-0.5
Buffalo#116
+6.4away
home+8.1
Kent State#128
+15.0home
away-10.3
Toledo#73
-3.4away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +9.495% interval: -14.5 to 33.380% interval: -8 to 26.8-8+27BGSU wins 26%WMU wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 BGSUWMU 25–46 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 28–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 53–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 21–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 25–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 49–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 18–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 21–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWMU 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWMU 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 46–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 14–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 18–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWMU 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWMU 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 42–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 11–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 14–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWMU 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWMU 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWMU 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 39–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 7–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 11–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWMU 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWMU 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 35–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 4–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWMU 7–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 11–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 14–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 18–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 21–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 25–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 28–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBGSU +21BGSU +7WMU +7WMU +21WMU +35margin →