AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Tue Nov 10 · 5:00 AM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
23p
#114Home
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
31p
KENT 29%71% BGSU
Spread
BGSU -8.1
Total
54
Moneyline
KENT+246BGSU-246
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenBGSU advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
BGSU +32
KENT run
BGSU +50
BGSU throw
even
BGSU run
KENT +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · KENT
CB1 · BGSU
44.9
79.7
BGSU +35
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · KENT
MLB · BGSU
53.3
69.1
BGSU +16
off the edge· hunting DeShields
Dustyn Morell
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · KENT
EDGE · BGSU
24.4
95.5
BGSU +71
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · KENT
FS · BGSU
47.9
62.8
BGSU +15
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · BGSU
MLB · KENT
52.8
53.9
dead even
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · BGSU
CB1 · KENT
38.4
59.4
KENT +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kent State
opponent
Bowling Green
away-14.4
Sacramento State#111
-3.8home
away-16.2
South Florida#78
-5.7home
home+5.2
Ball State#136
+10.8home
away-15.0
Western Michigan#84
-9.4away
home-6.6
Miami (OH)#91
-6.1away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBGSU +8.195% interval: -15.8 to 3280% interval: -9.3 to 25.4-9+25KENT wins 29%BGSU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BGSU 32–25 KENTBGSU 28–49 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 32–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 35–42 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 39–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 25–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 28–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 32–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 35–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 21–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 25–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 28–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 32–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBGSU 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 18–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 21–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 25–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 28–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBGSU 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 14–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 18–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 21–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 25–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBGSU 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 11–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 14–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 18–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 21–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 7–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 11–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 14–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 18–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKENT +21KENT +7BGSU +7BGSU +21BGSU +35margin →