AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Wed Nov 11 · 5:00 AM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
30p
#107Home
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
26p
SAC 60%40% CMU
Spread
SAC -3.7
Total
55
Moneyline
SAC-153CMU+153
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenCMU advantage →
SAC throw
CMU +53
SAC run
CMU linebackers #141
CMU +21
CMU throw
CMU +20
CMU run
CMU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · SAC
CB1 · CMU
38.4
76.0
CMU +38
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · CMU
EDGE · SAC
61.4
52.5
CMU +9
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · SAC
MLB · CMU
46.2
47.4
dead even
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · CMU
CB1 · SAC
53.7
33.6
CMU +20
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · CMU
MLB · SAC
57.2
28.6
CMU +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sacramento State
opponent
Central Michigan
away-15.5
Eastern Michigan#112
-0.8neutral
home+5.1
Ohio#101
-6.1away
away+12.1
Ball State#136
+5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +3.795% interval: -27.6 to 20.280% interval: -21.1 to 13.7-21+14SAC wins 60%CMU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 32–25 CMUCMU 21–56 SAC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCMU 25–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 28–49 SAC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 49–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 18–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 21–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 25–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 46–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 14–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 18–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 21–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 42–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 11–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 14–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 18–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 39–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 7–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 11–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 14–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 35–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 4–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 7–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 11–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 32–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 0–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCMU 4–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 7–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 28–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalSAC +35SAC +21SAC +7CMU +7CMU +21margin →