CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
#158Away
Bowling Green
0-4 · AVR 42.5
24
Final
#108Home
Miami (OH)
2-2 · AVR 53.2
20
Forecast win probability
BGSU 23.7%76.3% M-OH
Projected margin
M-OH by 12.1
Projected total
47
80% outcome range
BGSU 7 to M-OH 32
Win probability
M-OH 76.3%
FinalBGSU 24 · M-OH 20model had +12.1, off by 16.1

Current team profiles

Bowling Green
Miami (OH)

When Bowling Green has the ball

Passing

BGSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU offense
#87
M-OH defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.15
#87
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

M-OH defense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU offense
#136
M-OH defense
#41
EPA comparison
-0.12
#136
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA

Drive success

M-OH defense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU offense
#123
M-OH defense
#108
Success rates
38%
#123
44%
#108
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#126
0.15
#106
EPA / play
1.05
#134
1.29
#98
Explosiveness
17%
#109
13%
#123
Havoc

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Passing

M-OH offense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU defense
#75
M-OH offense
#24
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.40
#24
Pass EPA

Rushing

M-OH offense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU defense
#121
M-OH offense
#81
EPA comparison
0.18
#121
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

M-OH offense
Higher-ranked profile
BGSU defense
#117
M-OH offense
#101
Success rates
46%
#117
40%
#101
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#95
0.17
#65
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.39
#9
Explosiveness
14%
#107
15%
#84
Havoc

Current key players

Bowling Green
QBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
68.4
Penalties
0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.4
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
67
Passer rating allowed
99.5
Missed tackles
5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
67.9
Coverage
61.5
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.

Miami (OH)
QBDavid McComb
1120 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
84.249/729
WRScoop Smith
14 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
83.632/2069
WRMaleek Huggins
14 rec · 262 yds · 1 TD
80.650/2069
RBLazaro Rogers
104 yds · 1 TD · 5.0 YPC
75.5169/1044
LBChristian McKinney
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.4
Coverage
63.6
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.3247/1796
LBGrant Lyons
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
59.8
Pressures
13
Pass-rush snaps
122
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
72.6270/1796
Availability reports · 10
  • David McComb · QBout · 2026-10-10

    McComb is nursing an upper body injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Thomas Gotkowski · QBout · 2026-08-24

    Gotkowski is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Eric Karner · TEout · 2026-09-05

    Karner is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Keith Reynolds · WRout · 2026-09-05

    Reynolds has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Devin Hyatt · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Hyatt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Christian Ross · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ross is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brayden Boeing · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Boeing is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Castner · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Castner is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Noam Butbul · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Butbul is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trey Zvonar · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Zvonar is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Akron on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BGSU
M-OH
vs
Offense
61.2
#128 of 138
QB
84.2
#43 of 138
76.8
#56 of 138
RB
70.0
#119 of 138
64.1
#134 of 138
WR
78.2
#16 of 138
69.8
#66 of 138
TE
65.9
#88 of 138
60.3
#130 of 138
OL
71.8
#37 of 138
Defense
68.9
#117 of 138
DL
69.8
#109 of 138
62.2
#138 of 138
LB
71.1
#96 of 138
67.0
#125 of 138
DB
67.5
#121 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Bowling Green
opponent
Miami (OH)
A-2.8
BUF#149
+8.7H
H+10.1
MASS#134
+1.0A
A-9.7
WMU#79
-3.6A
H+4.2
KENT#161
+5.0A