AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
23p
#91Home
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
29p
BGSU 34%66% M-OH
Spread
M-OH -6.1
Total
52
Moneyline
BGSU+196M-OH-196
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenM-OH advantage →
BGSU throw
M-OH +59
BGSU run
M-OH +61
M-OH throw
BGSU +40
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
BGSU +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · M-OH
EDGE · BGSU
54.0
95.5
BGSU +41
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · M-OH
CB1 · BGSU
55.3
79.7
BGSU +24
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · BGSU
MLB · M-OH
52.8
82.1
M-OH +29
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Ben Minich
X · BGSU
CB1 · M-OH
38.4
88.7
M-OH +50
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · M-OH
FS · BGSU
58.9
62.8
BGSU +4
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · M-OH
MLB · BGSU
48.3
69.1
BGSU +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Bowling Green
opponent
Miami (OH)
away-0.5
Buffalo#116
+8.1home
away-9.4
Western Michigan#84
-5.9away
home+8.1
Kent State#128
+6.6away
home+22.3
Massachusetts#138
+20.9away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +6.195% interval: -17.8 to 3080% interval: -11.3 to 23.5-11+24BGSU wins 34%M-OH wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 28–21 BGSUM-OH 25–46 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 28–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 53–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 21–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 49–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 18–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 21–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 46–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 14–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 18–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesM-OH 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 42–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 11–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 14–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 7–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 11–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 35–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 4–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 7–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 11–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 14–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 18–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 21–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 25–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBGSU +21BGSU +7M-OH +7M-OH +21M-OH +35margin →