AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:30 PM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
13p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
36p
LT 7%93% LSU
Spread
LSU -22.4
Total
49
Moneyline
LT+1424LSU-1424
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenLSU advantage →
LT throw
LSU +54
LT run
LSU +21
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
LT +10
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
LT +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · LSU
CB1 · LT
86.3
83.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · LT
EDGE · LSU
53.7
99.9
LSU +46
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
DJ Pickett
X · LT
CB1 · LSU
44.3
93.7
LSU +49
over the middle
Trey'Dez Green
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · LSU
FS · LT
61.1
68.5
LT +7
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · LSU
MLB · LT
61.0
68.2
LT +7
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · LT
FS · LSU
46.7
79.0
LSU +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +22.495% interval: -1.5 to 46.380% interval: 5 to 39.8+5+40LT wins 7%LSU wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LSU 35–14 LTLSU 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 49–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 53–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 56–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 60–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 46–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 49–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 53–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 56–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLSU 42–14 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 46–11 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 49–7 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLSU 53–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLSU 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesLSU 39–11 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 42–7 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 46–4 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLSU 49–0 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLSU 35–7 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 39–4 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 42–0 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LSU 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 32–4 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 35–0 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)LSU 11–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 14–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 18–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 21–7 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 25–4 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 28–0 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalLT +7LSU +7LSU +21LSU +35LSU +49margin →