AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
Away
West Georgia
—
19p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
37p
WGA 10%90% ARST
Spread
ARST -17.9
Total
56
Moneyline
WGA+866ARST-866
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +17.995% interval: -5.1 to 40.880% interval: 1.1 to 34.6+1+35WGA wins 10%ARST wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 39–18 WGAARST 35–42 WGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 39–39 WGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 42–35 WGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 46–32 WGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 49–28 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 53–25 WGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 56–21 WGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 60–18 WGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 63–14 WGA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARST 32–39 WGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 35–35 WGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 39–32 WGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 42–28 WGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 46–25 WGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 49–21 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 53–18 WGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 56–14 WGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 60–11 WGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 28–35 WGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 32–32 WGA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 35–28 WGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 39–25 WGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARST 42–21 WGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 46–18 WGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 49–14 WGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 53–11 WGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 56–7 WGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 25–32 WGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 28–28 WGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 32–25 WGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 35–21 WGA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARST 39–18 WGA neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesARST 42–14 WGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 46–11 WGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 49–7 WGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 53–4 WGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 21–28 WGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 25–25 WGA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 28–21 WGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 32–18 WGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 35–14 WGA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 39–11 WGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 42–7 WGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 46–4 WGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 49–0 WGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 18–25 WGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 21–21 WGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 25–18 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 28–14 WGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 32–11 WGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 35–7 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 39–4 WGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 42–0 WGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARST 14–21 WGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 18–18 WGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 21–14 WGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 25–11 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 28–7 WGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 32–4 WGA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 35–0 WGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWGA +7ARST +7ARST +21ARST +35ARST +49margin →