CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SELA 16.4%83.6% USA
Projected margin
USA by 15.6
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
SELA 5 to USA 36
Win probability
USA 83.6%
FinalSELA 14 · USA 39model had +15.6, off by 9.4

Current team profiles

SE Louisiana
South Alabama

When SE Louisiana has the ball

Passing

No comparison
SELA offense
—
USA defense
#122
EPA comparison
—
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
SELA offense
—
USA defense
#125
EPA comparison
—
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
SELA offense
#38
USA defense
#137
Success rates
45%
#38
51%
#137
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#34
0.27
#134
EPA / play
0.22
#39
1.36
#119
Explosiveness
—
17%
#52
Havoc

When South Alabama has the ball

Passing

No comparison
SELA defense
—
USA offense
#37
EPA comparison
—
0.34
#37
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
SELA defense
—
USA offense
#30
EPA comparison
—
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
SELA defense
#83
USA offense
#69
Success rates
45%
#83
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#59
0.23
#36
EPA / play
0.20
#38
1.33
#23
Explosiveness
—
13%
#34
Havoc

Current key players

SE Louisiana
QBIssac Mooring III
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
82.129/370
DBKenneth Ford
30 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.3
Coverage
78.1
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
29
Passer rating allowed
86.8
Missed tackles
4
80.145/1765
RBDeantre Jackson
219 yds · 0 TD · 6.3 YPC
79.737/631
WRDkhai Joseph
21 rec · 248 yds · 2 TD
75.265/1229
WRDesmen Jefferson
5 rec · 75 yds · 0 TD
75.267/1229
LBTrace Carter
37 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.2
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
74.6111/1054
South Alabama
QBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
42.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
115
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
53.1
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SELA
USA
vs
Offense
82.1
#26 of 125
QB
73.0
#90 of 138
73.2
#54 of 126
RB
78.0
#47 of 138
74.1
#19 of 126
WR
68.0
#110 of 138
64.8
#63 of 124
TE
61.4
#109 of 138
62.9
#79 of 125
OL
65.6
#91 of 138
Defense
69.2
#79 of 126
DL
65.2
#135 of 138
72.0
#53 of 126
LB
66.2
#128 of 138
71.9
#57 of 126
DB
69.4
#106 of 138
Common opponents