Passing
No comparison
- ALST offense
- —
- TROY defense
- #71
EPA comparison
—
0.15
#71
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ALST 12.5%87.5% TROY
- Projected margin
- TROY by 17.7
- Projected total
- 56
- 80% outcome range
- ALST 3 to TROY 38
- Win probability
- TROY 87.5%
FinalALST 17 · TROY 34model had +17.7, off by 0.7
Current team profiles
Alabama State
TroyWhen Alabama State has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- ALST offense
- —
- TROY defense
- #56
EPA comparison
—
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- ALST offense
- #62
- TROY defense
- #64
Success rates
44%
#62
40%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#35
0.07
#73
EPA / play
0.21
#56
1.35
#116
Explosiveness
—
17%
#59
Havoc
When Troy has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- ALST defense
- —
- TROY offense
- #101
EPA comparison
—
0.11
#101
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- ALST defense
- —
- TROY offense
- #45
EPA comparison
—
0.16
#45
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- ALST defense
- #55
- TROY offense
- #79
Success rates
43%
#55
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#21
0.13
#78
EPA / play
0.19
#24
1.26
#47
Explosiveness
—
17%
#114
Havoc
Current key players
Alabama StateRBJareese Howard
116 yds · 3 TD · 5.0 YPC
79.045/631
DLKordell Steele
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.950/1549
DLMyles Richardson
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.1
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 33
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.559/1549
DLEldridge Shelton
7 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Pressures
- 7
- Pass-rush snaps
- 53
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.772/1549
OLMekhi Blue
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 84.4
- Run blocking
- 71.5
- Penalties
- 0
76.925/1368
DLAjani Mason
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.4
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
76.392/1549
TroyQBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.7
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 37
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.1
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.0
- Coverage
- 67.2
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 31
- Passer rating allowed
- 100.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.5
- Coverage
- 68.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.3
- Missed tackles
- 1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.2
- Coverage
- 67.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03
Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06
Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ALSTAlabama State
TROYTroy
vs
Offense
68.2
#79 of 125
QB
Quarterback
60.7
#130 of 138
74.0
#48 of 126
RB
Running backs
76.6
#59 of 138
69.0
#65 of 126
WR
Receivers
67.0
#121 of 138
59.2
#99 of 124
TE
Tight ends
69.3
#68 of 138
62.9
#83 of 125
OL
Offensive line
61.6
#123 of 138
Defense
77.9
#10 of 126
DL
Defensive line
64.1
#138 of 138
68.1
#95 of 126
LB
Linebackers
69.1
#112 of 138
71.8
#59 of 126
DB
Secondary
72.0
#71 of 138