AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 8:00 PM
Away
Alabama State
—
18p
#95Home
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
38p
ALST 8%92% TROY
Spread
TROY -19.6
Total
56
Moneyline
ALST+1102TROY-1102
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTROY +19.695% interval: -3.4 to 42.680% interval: 2.9 to 36.3+3+36ALST wins 8%TROY wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TROY 39–18 ALSTTROY 35–42 ALST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 39–39 ALST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTROY 42–35 ALST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 46–32 ALST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTROY 49–28 ALST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 53–25 ALST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 56–21 ALST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTROY 60–18 ALST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 63–14 ALST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 32–39 ALST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 35–35 ALST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 39–32 ALST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 42–28 ALST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTROY 46–25 ALST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 49–21 ALST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 53–18 ALST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 56–14 ALST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 60–11 ALST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTROY 28–35 ALST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 32–32 ALST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 35–28 ALST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 39–25 ALST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 42–21 ALST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTROY 46–18 ALST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 49–14 ALST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 53–11 ALST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 56–7 ALST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 25–32 ALST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 28–28 ALST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTROY 32–25 ALST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 35–21 ALST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 39–18 ALST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTROY 42–14 ALST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTROY 46–11 ALST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 49–7 ALST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 53–4 ALST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 21–28 ALST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTROY 25–25 ALST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTROY 28–21 ALST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTROY 32–18 ALST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTROY 35–14 ALST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTROY 39–11 ALST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTROY 42–7 ALST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 46–4 ALST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTROY 49–0 ALST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–25 ALST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTROY 21–21 ALST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTROY 25–18 ALST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTROY 28–14 ALST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTROY 32–11 ALST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTROY 35–7 ALST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTROY 39–4 ALST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTROY 42–0 ALST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TROY 14–21 ALST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTROY 18–18 ALST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTROY 21–14 ALST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTROY 25–11 ALST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTROY 28–7 ALST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTROY 32–4 ALST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTROY 35–0 ALST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalALST +7TROY +7TROY +21TROY +35TROY +49margin →