AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
30p
#103Home
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
27p
ODU 58%42% APP
Spread
ODU -3.0
Total
58
Moneyline
ODU-137APP+137
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenAPP advantage →
ODU throw
even
ODU run
ODU +16
APP throw
APP protection #46
ODU +58
APP run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · APP
EDGE · ODU
81.7
73.0
APP +9
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Colton Phares
RB · ODU
MLB · APP
64.7
76.6
APP +12
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · APP
MLB · ODU
60.6
79.2
ODU +19
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · ODU
CB1 · APP
53.6
77.4
APP +24
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Zion Frink
X · APP
CB1 · ODU
41.4
89.5
ODU +48
over the middle
Dillon Galloway
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · APP
FS · ODU
37.8
76.5
ODU +39

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Old Dominion
opponent
App State
home+10.0
Georgia Southern#117
-0.6away
home+2.3
East Carolina#77
-8.2away
home+3.2
Marshall#83
-7.3away
away+9.8
Coastal Carolina#126
+4.2away
home-2.5
James Madison#55
-8.0home
away+9.3
Georgia State#131
+8.7home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +3.095% interval: -26.9 to 20.980% interval: -20.4 to 14.3-20+14ODU wins 58%APP wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ APP 28–28 ODUAPP 25–53 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 53–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAPP 21–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 49–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 18–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 46–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 14–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 42–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 11–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAPP 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 39–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 7–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 35–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 4–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 32–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +28ODU +14PKAPP +14APP +28margin →