AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
29p
#126Home
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
25p
APP 62%38% CCU
Spread
APP -4.2
Total
54
Moneyline
APP-160CCU+160
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenCCU advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46CCU coverage #123
CCU +26
APP run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
even
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +14
CCU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · APP
EDGE · CCU
81.7
82.2
dead even
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · CCU
CB1 · APP
74.7
77.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · CCU
EDGE · APP
47.2
84.7
APP +37
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Colton Phares
RB · CCU
MLB · APP
52.0
76.6
APP +25
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Tray Brown
RB · APP
MLB · CCU
60.6
63.6
CCU +3
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Myles Woods
X · APP
CB1 · CCU
41.4
54.5
CCU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
App State
opponent
Coastal Carolina
home-8.0
James Madison#55
-19.8away
home+8.7
Georgia State#131
-3.0away
home-3.0
Old Dominion#76
-9.8home
away-7.3
Marshall#83
-14.1away
away-0.6
Georgia Southern#117
-2.3home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAPP +4.295% interval: -28.1 to 19.780% interval: -21.6 to 13.1-22+13APP wins 62%CCU wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ APP 32–25 CCUCCU 21–56 APP neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCCU 25–53 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 28–49 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 32–46 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 18–53 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 21–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 25–46 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 28–42 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 14–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 18–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 21–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 25–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 11–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 14–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 18–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 21–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 7–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 11–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 14–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 18–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 4–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 7–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 11–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 14–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCCU 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 0–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 4–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 7–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 11–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCCU 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalAPP +35APP +21APP +7CCU +7CCU +21margin →