AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
29p
#117Home
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
30p
APP 49%51% GASO
Spread
GASO -0.6
Total
59
Moneyline
APP+106GASO-106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenGASO advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46
APP +15
APP run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
APP +25
GASO throw
even
GASO run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · GASO
EDGE · APP
78.6
84.7
APP +6
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · APP
MLB · GASO
60.6
78.1
GASO +17
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Caleb Moore
LT · APP
EDGE · GASO
81.7
49.3
APP +32
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Colton Phares
RB · GASO
MLB · APP
50.8
76.6
APP +26
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · GASO
CB1 · APP
49.2
77.4
APP +28
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Devin Henderson
TE · GASO
FS · APP
50.3
51.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
App State
opponent
Georgia Southern
home-3.0
Old Dominion#76
-10.0away
home+8.7
Georgia State#131
+1.8away
away-7.3
Marshall#83
-4.3home
away+4.2
Coastal Carolina#126
+2.3away
home-8.0
James Madison#55
-9.9home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGASO +0.695% interval: -23.3 to 24.580% interval: -16.8 to 18-17+18APP wins 49%GASO wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GASO 28–28 APPGASO 25–53 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 28–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 32–46 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 53–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 21–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 25–46 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 28–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 49–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 18–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 21–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 25–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGASO 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGASO 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 46–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 14–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 18–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 21–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGASO 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGASO 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 42–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 11–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 14–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 18–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 39–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 7–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 11–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 14–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 35–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 4–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 7–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 11–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGASO 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 32–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalAPP +28APP +14PKGASO +14GASO +28margin →