AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
25p
#103Home
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
33p
GAST 27%73% APP
Spread
APP -8.7
Total
58
Moneyline
GAST+268APP-268
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenAPP advantage →
GAST throw
even
GAST run
APP +25
APP throw
APP protection #46
APP +17
APP run
APP +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · GAST
EDGE · APP
54.8
84.7
APP +30
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Kelze Howard
LT · APP
EDGE · GAST
81.7
46.4
APP +35
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Colton Phares
RB · GAST
MLB · APP
47.2
76.6
APP +29
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · GAST
CB1 · APP
44.1
77.4
APP +33
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Devin Henderson
TE · GAST
FS · APP
61.3
51.7
GAST +10
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · APP
MLB · GAST
60.6
39.6
APP +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia State
opponent
App State
away-19.3
James Madison#55
-8.0home
home-9.3
Old Dominion#76
-3.0home
away-13.6
Marshall#83
-7.3away
home+3.0
Coastal Carolina#126
+4.2away
home-1.8
Georgia Southern#117
-0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAPP +8.795% interval: -15.2 to 32.680% interval: -8.7 to 26.1-9+26GAST wins 27%APP wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ APP 32–25 GASTAPP 28–49 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 32–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 25–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 28–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 21–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 25–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 18–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 21–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 14–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 18–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 11–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 14–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 7–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 11–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 14–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 18–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 21–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 25–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 28–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 32–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 35–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalGAST +21GAST +7APP +7APP +21APP +35margin →