CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
GAST 48.1%51.9% APP
Projected margin
APP by 0.8
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
GAST 18 to APP 19
Win probability
APP 51.9%

Current team profiles

Georgia State
App State

When Georgia State has the ball

Passing

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST offense
#12
APP defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.49
#12
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

APP defense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST offense
#63
APP defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST offense
#41
APP defense
#72
Success rates
47%
#41
40%
#72
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#32
0.02
#52
EPA / play
1.29
#36
1.06
#12
Explosiveness
11%
#14
19%
#28
Havoc

When App State has the ball

Passing

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST defense
#7
APP offense
#47
EPA comparison
-0.10
#7
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST defense
#73
APP offense
#107
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.01
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GAST defense
#30
APP offense
#83
Success rates
35%
#30
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
-0.05
#25
0.12
#84
EPA / play
1.20
#60
1.26
#52
Explosiveness
20%
#15
15%
#87
Havoc

Current key players

Georgia State
QBCameran Brown
1157 yds · 12 TD · 4 INT
90.322/729
LBXavier Esqillion
18 tkl · 8.5 TFL · 7.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.9
Coverage
62.0
Pressures
25
Pass-rush snaps
93
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
2
94.22/1796
LBKhalid Feliz
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.349/1796
RBDennis Murray Jr.
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
81.164/1044
WRIsaiah Stone
3 rec · 46 yds · 1 TD
75.4119/2069
WRRodshaun Dorsey
18 rec · 276 yds · 6 TD
75.3121/2069
App State
QBMalachi Singleton
1206 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
91.28/729
RBKanye Roberts
31 yds · 0 TD · 7.8 YPC
81.361/1044
LBCarson Sloan
15 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.6107/1796
WRJackson Grier
5 rec · 48 yds · 1 TD
77.976/2069
WRSam Pickett III
20 rec · 326 yds · 3 TD
76.795/2069
DBDre Walker
8 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
39.2
Coverage
83.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
97
Passer rating allowed
34.6
Missed tackles
3
75.2187/2969
Position units

Position-unit comparison

GAST
APP
vs
Offense
90.3
#21 of 138
QB
91.2
#9 of 138
77.2
#53 of 138
RB
77.7
#49 of 138
74.1
#41 of 138
WR
76.6
#28 of 138
64.8
#91 of 138
TE
67.0
#83 of 138
72.2
#33 of 138
OL
62.7
#116 of 138
Defense
72.4
#78 of 138
DL
76.3
#41 of 138
85.7
#2 of 138
LB
74.1
#68 of 138
69.8
#101 of 138
DB
67.2
#124 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Georgia State
opponent
App State
H+32.0
ODU#130
-7.0H
H+10.1
CCU#127
+3.0A
H+4.5
GASO#102
-2.6A
A-16.5
JMU#51
-12.9H
A0.0
MRSH#124
-1.8A