AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
26p
#83Home
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
33p
APP 30%70% MRSH
Spread
MRSH -7.3
Total
59
Moneyline
APP+228MRSH-228
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenMRSH advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46
MRSH +25
APP run
APP +11
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +26
MRSH run
APP +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · APP
EDGE · MRSH
81.7
89.6
MRSH +8
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · MRSH
CB1 · APP
67.4
77.4
APP +10
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · APP
MLB · MRSH
60.6
81.8
MRSH +21
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Colton Phares
RB · MRSH
MLB · APP
51.6
76.6
APP +25
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · APP
CB1 · MRSH
41.4
79.3
MRSH +38
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · MRSH
EDGE · APP
32.0
84.7
APP +53

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
App State
opponent
Marshall
away-5.2
South Alabama#100
+4.7home
away+4.2
Coastal Carolina#126
+14.1home
home+8.7
Georgia State#131
+13.6home
away-0.6
Georgia Southern#117
+4.3away
home+12.4
UL Monroe#132
+12.2away
home-3.0
Old Dominion#76
-3.2away
home-8.0
James Madison#55
-8.2away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +7.395% interval: -16.6 to 31.280% interval: -10 to 24.7-10+25APP wins 30%MRSH wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 32–25 APPMRSH 28–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 32–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMRSH 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 53–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 56–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 25–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 28–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 49–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 53–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMRSH 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 46–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 49–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 18–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 42–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 46–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 14–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 18–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 42–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 11–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 14–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMRSH 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 35–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 39–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 7–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 11–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 32–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 35–0 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalAPP +21APP +7MRSH +7MRSH +21MRSH +35margin →