AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
21p
#103Home
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
33p
ULM 20%80% APP
Spread
APP -12.4
Total
55
Moneyline
ULM+407APP-407
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenAPP advantage →
ULM throw
APP +22
ULM run
APP +25
APP throw
APP protection #46
APP +5
APP run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · APP
MLB · ULM
60.6
86.1
ULM +25
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · ULM
EDGE · APP
41.3
84.7
APP +43
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · ULM
CB1 · APP
48.1
77.4
APP +29
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
James Smith
LT · APP
EDGE · ULM
81.7
42.7
APP +39
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Devin Henderson
TE · ULM
FS · APP
61.0
51.7
ULM +9
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · APP
CB1 · ULM
41.4
57.9
ULM +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UL Monroe
opponent
App State
away-15.1
South Alabama#100
-5.2away
home-12.2
Marshall#83
-7.3away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAPP +12.495% interval: -11.5 to 36.380% interval: -5 to 29.8-5+30ULM wins 20%APP wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ APP 35–21 ULMAPP 32–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 35–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 39–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 60–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 28–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 32–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 35–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAPP 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 56–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 25–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 28–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 32–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAPP 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 53–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 21–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 25–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 28–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAPP 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAPP 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 49–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 18–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 21–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 25–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 46–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 14–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 18–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 21–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 42–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 11–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 14–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 18–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalULM +14PKAPP +14APP +28APP +42margin →