AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
23p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
29p
KENN 35%65% ARST
Spread
ARST -5.2
Total
52
Moneyline
KENN+183ARST-183
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenARST advantage →
KENN throw
ARST +24
KENN run
even
ARST throw
KENN +20
ARST run
ARST backs #67
KENN +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · ARST
MLB · KENN
59.4
76.2
KENN +17
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Five Hamilton
X · KENN
CB1 · ARST
49.2
67.8
ARST +19
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Kody Jones
X · ARST
CB1 · KENN
45.7
63.2
KENN +17
over the middle
Gerard Bullock Jr.
vs
Joe Drew
TE · KENN
FS · ARST
45.8
59.0
ARST +13
off the edge· hunting Dickey
Aleric Watson
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · ARST
EDGE · KENN
27.1
72.4
KENN +45
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · KENN
MLB · ARST
47.5
51.6
ARST +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kennesaw State
opponent
Arkansas State
home+6.2
Georgia State#131
+9.0home
home+16.5
West Georgia
+17.9home

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +5.295% interval: -18.7 to 29.280% interval: -12.1 to 22.6-12+23KENN wins 35%ARST wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 28–21 KENNARST 25–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 28–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 32–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 49–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 53–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 21–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 25–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 28–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 46–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 49–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 18–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 21–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 25–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 42–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 46–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 14–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 18–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 21–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARST 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 39–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 42–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 11–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 14–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 18–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 35–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 39–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 7–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 11–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 14–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 32–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 35–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 4–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 7–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 11–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 14–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 18–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 21–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 25–4 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 28–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalKENN +21KENN +7ARST +7ARST +21ARST +35margin →